DOGRAFS逐小时气温和降水预报的释用  

Study on the Interpretation and Application Method of Hourly Temperature and Precipitation Forecast Based on DOGRAFS

作　　者：唐冶 李如琦 马玉芬[3] 张萌 张俊 刘军建 TANG Ye;LI Ruqi;MA Yufen;ZHANG Meng;ZHANG Jun;LIU Junjian(Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory,Urumqi 830002,China;Center for Central Asian Atmosphere Science Research,Urumqi 830002,China;Institute of Desert Meteorology,CMA,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中亚大气科学研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2021年第4期100-106,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507105);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究国家专项(2019QZKK010206);中亚大气科学研究基金(CASS201707)。

摘　　要：采用2016—2018年DOGRAFS(沙漠绿洲戈壁区域分析预报系统)的气温、降水逐小时预报资料,在检验的基础上开展释用方法研究,并用2019年资料进行试验测试,结果表明:DOGRAFS气温预报,08时起报的准确率要高于20时起报的;北疆好于南疆,准确率为50%,平均绝对误差为2.5℃,采用最高、最低气温建模方案,预报准确率提高到64%,平均绝对误差为1.9℃,预报的离散度降低。DOGRAFS降水预报,08时起报的TS评分略高,20时起报的晴雨准确率略高,南疆好于北疆;晴雨预报准确率可达95%,但降水TS评分仅有20%,空报率超过50%;采用消空订正方案,晴雨预报准确率提高1%,TS评分提高2%,空报率大大降低,但漏报率较大。释用方案对模式气温预报有较好的提升效果,降水预报仍有较大的改进空间。Based on the inspection of the hourly temperature and precipitation forecast data of DOGRAFS from 2016 to 2018,the interpretation and application method was studied,and the data in 2019 were used for experimental test.The results show that the temperature forecast accuracy of DOGRAFS from 08:00 was higher than that from 20:00,and that in northern Xinjiang was better than in southern Xinjiang,with an accuracy rate of 50%and an average absolute error of 2.5℃.The modeling scheme of the highest and lowest temperatures was adopted,and the prediction accuracy was increased to 64%with an average absolute error of 1.9℃,reducing the dispersion of the prediction.DOGRAFS precipitation forecast showed a slightly higher TS score from 08:00 and a slightly higher accuracy rate of fine and rain from 20:00,and southern Xinjiang was better than northern Xinjiang.In terms of the overall effect,the accuracy of sunny and rain forecast can reach 95%,but the precipitation TS score was only 20%,and the false forecast rate was over 50%.By adopting the correction scheme for air elimination,the accuracy of sunny and rain forecast can be increased by 1%,and the TS score can be increased by 2%.The false forecast rate decreases greatly,but the missing forecast rate increases greatly.The release scheme has a better effect on the model temperature forecast,and the precipitation forecast still has a large space for improvement.

关 键 词：DOGRAFS 释用 气温预报 降水预报 逐小时 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]