铁路曲线地段钢轨生存寿命评估与分析  

Survival life estimation and analysis in railway curve section

作　　者：何庆[1] 杨康华 杨翠平 高天赐[1] 王启航 王平[1] 刘勇 HE Qing;YANG Kanghua;YANG Cuiping;GAO Tianci;WANG Qihang;WANG Ping;LIU Yong(MOE Key Laboratory of High-speed Railway Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;Business School,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;China Railway Chengdu Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610082,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学高速铁路线路工程教育部重点实验室,四川成都610031 [2]四川大学商学院,四川成都610065 [3]中国铁路成都局集团有限公司,四川成都610082

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2021年第8期2038-2046,共9页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51878576);高铁联合基金重点资助项目(U1934214);四川省科技厅重点研发项目(2020YFG0049)。

摘　　要：钢轨作为轨道结构的重要组成部分之一,直接承受由车轮传来的全部荷载,钢轨伤损会严重影响列车的行车安全。山区铁路所处环境复杂,小半径曲线多,钢轨伤损出现频率高。针对影响山区铁路钢轨寿命的风险因素,采用非均匀网格划分线路,使每段网格内风险因素保持一致;依据钢轨历史状态信息建立生存分析模型,量化各风险因素对钢轨寿命的影响;最后绘制钢轨生存寿命曲线,并将生存分析评估寿命与2019版《普速铁路线路修理规则》制定的曲线钢轨大修阈值作对比分析。用成昆、成渝、宝成3条线路近10年钢轨伤损数据进行模型验证,得出以下结论:曲线半径每增加10 m,钢轨寿命增加0.5%;曲线段外轨的寿命是内轨的75.8%;非均匀区段长每增加10 m,该区段的生存寿命减少1%。As an important part of the track structure,the rail directly bears all the load from the wheels,so the rail defect seriously affects the train safety.Mountain railway is in a complex environment,and has many alignments ofsmall radius,so the occurrence of rail defect is frequent.In view of the risk factors affecting the life of rails in mountainous areas,non-uniform grid was used to divide the lines,so that the risk factors in each section of the grid were consistent.Based on the historical status information of rail,the survival analysis model was established and the influence of various risk factors on rail life was quantified.Finally,the rail life curve was drawn,and the evaluation life of the survival analysis model was compared with the threshold value of the curve rail overhaul formulated in the"Rules for Repair of Ordinary Speed Railway Lines".In this paper,the rail defect data of Chengkun,Chengyu and Baocheng in recent ten years are used to verify the model,and the following conclusions are drawn:every 100 m increase in curve radius increases rail life by 5%;The life of the outer orbit in the curve section is 75.8%of that of the inner orbit.For every 10 m increase in the length of an uneven section,the life span of that section decreases by 1%.

关 键 词：小曲线半径 钢轨伤损 风险因素 加速失效时间模型 

分 类 号：U216.424[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]