中国城市房价、收入与房价收入比的时空分异格局  

The spatiotemporal differentiation pattern of Chinese urban housing price,income and housing price-to-income ratio

作　　者：陈艳如 谷跃 宋伟轩[2,3] CHEN Yanru;GU Yue;SONG Weixuan(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,CAS,Nanjing 210008,China;Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences,CAS,Nanjing 210008,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,南京210093 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008 [3]中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室,南京210008 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理研究》2021年第9期2442-2458,共17页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41871116,41771184,41901196)。

摘　　要：中国城市房价快速增长背景下,城市房价、收入与房价收入比空间格局既有相似性,也表现出差异性,其空间异质性与空间依赖性特征显著。本文以中国337个地级行政单元为研究对象,运用泰尔指数、位序-规模和空间马尔科夫链等方法,对2009—2018年中国城市房价、收入和房价收入比的时空分异格局、整体稳定性和空间依赖性特征进行分析发现:(1)中国城市房价增长呈现出波动性特征,整体分异程度增强,房价城市体系呈现"金字塔型"结构,收入则表现出平稳增长态势,整体分异度降低,城市体系呈现"橄榄型"结构,在房价与收入共同影响下,房价收入比整体差异性显著加强;(2)城市房价空间格局表现出"地带性"与"等级性"差异并存,而收入更多表现出"地带性"差异,房价收入比则以"等级性"差异为主;(3)城市房价和收入类型的稳定性和空间依赖性较强,高、低水平城市存在两极分化与"俱乐部收敛"现象,房价收入比稳定性相对较弱。对中国城市房价、收入和房价收入比时空分异格局和空间关联效应的分析,可以为探索中国城市房价收入比空间分异模式与机理提供必要研究基础。Amid the fast-growing housing price in Chinese cities,the spatial pattern of urban housing price,income and housing price-to-income ratio shows both similarities and differences,characterized by internal spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence.This paper targets 337 prefecture-level administrative units and applies the Theil index,rank-size and spatial Markov chain to the analysis of the spatiotemporal differentiation pattern,overall stability and spatial dependence of Chinese urban housing price,income and housing price-toincome ratio from 2009 to 2018.It finds the following results.Firstly,the growth of Chinese urban housing price is phase-based and fluctuated.When the overall differentiation enlarges,the urban system of housing price takes on a structure of"pyramid"and income shows sustained and stable growth.When the overall differentiation shrinks,the urban system presents a structure of"olive".Under the combined influence of housing price and income,the overall differentiation of housing price-to-income ratio is obviously strengthened.Secondly,housing prices,income and housing price-to-income ratios in Chinese cities are all spatially heterogeneous and agglomerated.The spatial pattern of housing price is different in both zonality and hierarchy,while income is particularly different in zonality and housing price-toincome ratio is particularly different in hierarchy.Due to the coexistence of similarities and differences between housing prices and income patterns in Chinese cities,the housing price-toincome ratio pattern presents a more complex and discrete structure.Thirdly,the stability and spatial dependence of urban housing price and the type of income is stronger,while the stability of housing price-to-income ratio is relatively weak as there are polarization and club convergence in cities at different levels.Housing prices to the north of the"Hu Huanyong Line"shifted downwards,income shifted upwards,and the housing price-to-income ratio declined.In the southern regions,housing prices generally rose

关 键 词：住宅价格 居民收入 房价收入比 空间分异 城市位序-规模 空间马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F126.2