浙江省农房自然灾害保险费率厘定研究  

Insurance Premium Rating for Rural House Natural Disaster Insurance in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：于海娇 牟青洋 战宁 叶涛 YU Haijiao;MU Qingyang;ZHAN Ning;YE Tao(Institute of Disaster Risk Science,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;People s Property and Casualty Insurance Company of China Zhejiang Branch,Hangzhou 310009,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters,Ministry of Education,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部灾害风险科学研究院,北京100875 [2]中国人民财产保险股份有限公司浙江省分公司,浙江杭州310009 [3]北京师范大学地理科学学部环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [4]应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2021年第4期67-73,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：北京师范大学综合灾害风险管理创新引智基地2.0(BP0820003)。

摘　　要：农村住房保险是防范农村自然灾害风险的重要手段。评估农房自然灾害风险、制定基于风险的区域差别化费率是促进农业和财产保险高质量发展的基础条件。基于2009—2018年浙江省农房灾害保险的承保与赔案数据,利用非寿险定价的聚合风险模型,结合离散事件仿真方法,厘定了分县保险费率。研究结果显示,浙江省农房灾害保险的纯风险损失率在0.01%~0.21%之间,主要呈现南高北低的分异格局。年期望保险赔付金额在0.67万元~694.24万元之间,主要呈现东高西低的分异格局。依据上述区域差异,最终将浙江省划分为10个保险区。研究结果充分地反映了农房灾害损失风险的区域差异,也进一步证明农房灾害保险坚持区域差异化是必然趋势,并可为浙江省提升农房灾害保险产品的专业化与精细化提供科学参考。Rural house insurance is an important means for rural natural disaster risks governance.Assessing the risk of natural disasters in rural houses and implementing risk-based and region-differentiated premium rates are the prerequisites for promoting the high-quality development of agriculture and property insurance.we use the insurance underwriting and claim data of Zhejiang Rural House Disaster Insurance program from^(2)009 to 2018,emply the collective risk model of non-life insurance pricing,and combine with the stochastic event simulation approach,to derive county-level insurance premium rate.Our results showed that,actuarially faire premium rate ranged between 0.01~0.21%in Zhejiang,mainly exhibiting south-to-north descend gradient.County-level annual average insurance loss ranges between 6.7~6942 thousand yuan,mainly exhibiting east-to-west descend gradient.Based on those regional difference,Zhejiang Province was divided into 10 insurance regions.Compared to existing premium rates,results of this study provided detailed evidence of the regional differences in the risk of disaster loss in rural houses,and further prove that it is an inevitable trend for rural house disaster insurance to insist on regional differentiation.These results could also provide scientific reference for improving the quality of rural house disaster insurance products in Zhejiang Province.

关 键 词：农房灾害保险 费率厘定 蒙特卡洛仿真 聚合风险模型 浙江省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5