资源型城市生态与经济协调发展及预测分析  

Coordinated development and forecast analysis of ecology and economy in resource-based cities

作　　者：刘洁 雷思友[1] LIU Jie;LEI Siyou(College of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《黑龙江工程学院学报》2021年第5期37-41,共5页Journal of Heilongjiang Institute of Technology

基　　金：安徽省高校人文社科重点项目(SK2017A0096)。

摘　　要：可持续发展标准之一就是生态经济协调发展。基于淮南市2009—2018年的面板数据,建立生态环境与经济评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和GM(1,1)模型,对生态与经济协调发展进行分析预测。结果表明:淮南市经济发展较快,生态相对滞后;耦合度由磨合耦合阶段迅速提升到高水平耦合并保持稳定;协调度由失调向协调演变,总体呈现上升趋势,但仍属中等协调类型;未来5 a淮南市综合水平将稳步提高,但其生态与经济系统仍存在显著差距。One of the criteria for sustainable development is the coordinated development of ecological economy.Based on the panel data of Huainan City from 2009 to 2018,this paper establishes an ecological environment and economic evaluation index system,uses the coupling coordination degree model and the GM(1,1)model,analyzes and predict the coordinated development of ecology and economy,and tries to provide reference for the sustainable development of Huainan’s ecological economy.Huainan’s economy is developing rapidly,and the ecology is relatively lagging;the coupling degree has rapidly increased from the running-in coupling stage to a high level of coupling and remains stable;the coordination degree has evolved from imbalance to coordination,showing an overall upward trend,but still moderate coordination type.Huainan City’s comprehensive level will steadily be improved in the next 5 years,but there is still a significant gap between its ecological and economic systems.

关 键 词：资源型城市 可持续发展 生态与经济 耦合协调度 GM(1 1)模型 淮南市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]