大跨悬索桥主缆长期性能评估与分级  

Long-Term Performance Evaluation and Rating of Main Cable of Long-Span Suspension Bridge

作　　者：徐世桥 马如进[2] 陈艾荣[2] XU Shi-qiao;MA Ru-jin;CHEN Ai-rong(China Construction Eighth Engineering Division Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200122,China;Department of Bridge Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]中国建筑第八工程局有限公司,上海200122 [2]同济大学桥梁工程系,上海200092

出　　处：《桥梁建设》2021年第5期53-60,共8页Bridge Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51878493,52178153)。

摘　　要：为研究大跨悬索桥主缆的长期性能,以西堠门大桥为背景进行分析。采用时间序列分析理论对该桥主缆索股力监测数据进行平稳化处理;在此基础上,对整合移动平均自回归(ARIMA)模型进行定阶与参数识别,建立主缆索股力预测模型,对长期运营的悬索桥主缆索股力进行预测;构建载荷度指标,并根据该指标的95%保证率范围、主导荷载以及桥梁正常使用状态等确定该桥主缆性能分级阈值,对该桥主缆长期性能进行评估与分级。结果表明:通过2次差分可实现主缆索股力监测数据平稳化,建立的ARIMA(1,2,2)_(365)模型能可靠预测远期索股力;经计算,西堠门大桥运营的前50年内主缆性能始终处于Ⅰ级状态,而运营100年左右后主缆性能处于Ⅲ级状态;根据所构建的评价指标以及评价等级,西堠门大桥主缆的长期性能随运营时间增加呈下降趋势,因此大跨悬索桥在运维管理中应注重对主缆的监测与养护。The long-term performance of main cables of the long-span suspension bridge is studied with the case of Xihoumen Bridge.The measured strand forces of the main cables are taken for a stationary processing using the time series analysis theory,on the basis of which,the order determination and parameter identification of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model are carried out,and a prediction model is established to calculate the main cable strand forces in the long-term operation of the suspension bridge.Moreover,the load degree index is defined to evaluate the long-term performance of the main cable,and the rating thresholds are determined in accordance with the 95%guarantee rate range of the index,the dominant load and the serviceability limit state of the bridge.The results show that the monitoring data of main cable strands can be stabilized by twice difference calculation.In addition,the ARIMA(1,2,2)_(365) model can be used to predict the long-term main cable strands force.The calculation results demonstrate the main cable performance of Xihoumen Bridge keeps atⅠlevel in the first 50 years of operation,but will slip toⅢlevel after serving about 100 years.Obviously,the long-term performance of main cables of Xihoumen Bridge is inversely related to the increase of operation time,therefore,the monitoring and maintenance of the main cables should be given great concern in the operation management of the long-span suspension bridge.

关 键 词：大跨悬索桥 长期性能评估 监测数据 主缆索股力 ARIMA模型 性能指标 性能分级 

分 类 号：U448.25[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] U443.38[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]