政府搬迁是房价上涨的推手吗?——来自微观住房交易数据的证据  

Does the government relocation promote housing prices:Evidence from the micro-housing transaction data

作　　者：周墨 杨超[1] 凌爱凡[1] 杨晓光[2] ZHOU Mo;YANG Chao;LING Aifan;YANG Xiaoguang(School of Finance,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,CAS,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学金融学院,南昌330013 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2021年第9期2180-2197,共18页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71703062,71771107,72071098);江西省双千计划领军人才项目(JXSQ2019201130)。

摘　　要：近年来政府机关的搬迁现象越来越常见.本文利用2007-2018年微观住房交易数据,通过DID模型分析了政府搬迁对中国住房价格的影响及其作用机制.研究结果表明:政府搬迁对该城市整体的住房价格有显著的负面影响;政府的搬迁行为推高了政府迁入区与迁出区的房价,降低了城市中与搬迁不相关区域的房价;通过机制分析发现,政府搬迁吸引了常住人口的流入,促进了房地产开发,进而推动了迁入区房价的上涨;通过差异性检验发现,政府搬迁对中户型住房和毛坯房的价格影响相对较大;通过时间趋势检验发现,政府搬迁对房价的影响具有显著的"时间效应",随着时间的推移,政府搬迁对迁入区与迁出区房价的正向影响逐年增大,对其它城区住房价格的负向影响逐渐减小,并最终转为正向影响.Government relocation has become more common in recent years.Based on the micro-housing transaction data from 2007 to 2018,this paper examines the impact of government relocation on China’s housing prices and its mechanism by DID model.The empirical results show that the government relocation has a significant negative effect on average housing prices of the city where the government relocation occurred,and increased the housing prices in districts where the government moved in and moved out,while decreased housing prices in other districts.Through mechanism analysis,this study find that the government relocation attracts the inflow of the permanent residents and improves the development of real estate,which results in housing prices growth in moved-in districts.In addition,the government relocation has larger impact on the prices of medium-sized houses and roughcast houses.We also find that the government relocation has a significant "time effect" on the housing prices.The positive impact of government relocation on the housing prices of the moved-in and the moved-out districts increases year by year,and the negative impact in other districts has gradually decreased,and finally turned into a positive impact.

关 键 词：政府搬迁 住房价格 土地价格 DID回归 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济] F830