企业特有风险计量与检验——以营创三征为例  

Enterprise-specific risk measurement and inspection——A Case Study of Ying Chuang San Zheng

作　　者：胡晓明[1] 程伟杰 解辰翔 Hu Xiaoming;Cheng Weijie;Xie Chenxiang(Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学会计学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《中国资产评估》2021年第9期39-47,共9页Appraisal Journal of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“生物医药产业集群生态位分离网络生成及演化研究”(71371087);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目“规模超额收益率衡量指标的探索”(SJCX200456)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：伴随我国经济的发展以及相关制度的深化改革,企业并购重组活动成为企业保值增值、拓展市场、增强自身实力的重要手段。资产评估在并购重组中扮演着越来越重要的角色,其估值结果往往决定着并购重组的交易结果。本文以255家化工业上市公司为样本,选择企业规模、盈利能力、财务杠杆、创新投入以及业务集中度指标运用因子分析构建出KMO值合理、信息保有量高的化工行业非上市公司企业特有风险计量模型。在营创三征被并购案例中,评估人员对企业特有风险的计量仅考虑企业规模与盈利能力的影响,指标选择相对片面,一定程度上致使折现率被低估。在运用本文所构建的企业特有风险定量分析模型且考虑所得税后,营创三征企业特有风险分别为2.69%与2.65%。进而在不调整相关现金流预测值的情况下,营创三征61%股权价值为62 290.36万元,相较于本案例评估人员取值69 292.95万元,下降了约7 000万元,更接近市场认可的价值。With the development of China’s economy and the deepening reform of relevant systems, mergers and acquisitions have become an important means for enterprises to maintain and increase their value, expand the market and enhance their own strength. Asset appraisal plays a more and more important role in mergers and acquisitions, and its valuation results often determine the transaction results of mergers and acquisitions. This paper takes 255 listed chemical companies as samples, selects the indexes of enterprise size, profitability, financial leverage, innovation investment and business concentration, and uses factor analysis to construct an enterprise-specific risk measurement model of non-listed chemical companies with reasonable KMO value and high information holding amount. In the case of the merger and acquisition of the company, the assessors only consider the impact of the enterprise size and profitability in measuring the unique risks of the enterprise, and the index selection is relatively one-sided, which leads to the discount rate being underestimated to some extent. After applying the quantitative analysis model of enterprisespecific risk constructed in this paper and considering income tax, the enterprise-specific risk of business creation and revenue collection is 2.69% and 2.65% respectively. In addition, without adjusting the forecast value of relevant cash flow, the 61% equity value of Revenue And Innovation Is 62 290.36 million yuan, which is about 70 million yuan lower than the value of 69,292.95 million yuan, which is closer to the value recognized by the market.

关 键 词：企业特有风险 CAPM模型 因子分析法 企业价值评估 

分 类 号：F272.5[经济管理—企业管理]