离散选择模型在零售中的应用--基于MNL、MNP和Mixed Logit的比较  

The Application of Discrete Choice Model on Retailing Research-Based on Comparation between MNL^MNP and Mixed Logit

作　　者：刘勇[1,2] 王高[3] Liu Yong;Wang Gao(Beijing Technology and Business University;China Europe International Business School)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院 [2]北京工商大学商学院 [3]中欧国际工商学院

出　　处：《营销科学学报（辑刊）》2009年第3期38-49,共12页Journal of Marketing Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“营销变量对消费者品牌选择影响的模型研究(批准号70572008)”部分研究成果.

摘　　要：尽管离散选择模型在20世纪70年代末开始应用于交通、能源、住房、通信及营销等研究领域,但离散选择模型在国内营销研究方面的研究还处于起步阶段.本文采用离散选择模型中MNL、MNP以及Mixed Logit三种模型,研究妇女卫生巾的销售因素(品牌、价格和人员促销、其他促销)对顾客选择及市场份额的影响,发现品牌及各个促销因素在顾客购买决策时确实起到了积极的影响,尤其是礼品促销等给顾客带来具体利益的促销影响最大(对市场份额的影响呢?).这为企业优化配置促销资源提供决策依据;同时,本文还根据三种离散选择模型的特点在同一批促销数据上的应用进行比较,发现Mixed Logit以及MNP比MNL模型拟合效果更优.Discrete Choice Model has been used widely in many research fields such as traffic,rcas estate,tel ecommunication,energy and marketing in the world,however the model in marketing research is still in its infancy in China.This paper applies three discrete selection models MNL,MNP,MIXED LOGIT.It focuses on the impact of marketing devices on customers’brand selection and market share in Sanitary Pad market.The author found that the brand and various other promotional factors are playing positive impact when customers purchasing decisions are made.Particularly,some promotional means,such as Gift-pro mot ion,which can bring customers some visible advantages,effect the greatest.

关 键 词：离散选择模型 MNL MNP Mixed Logit 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]