建设教育强国的战略趋势与路径选择——基于第七次全国人口普查数据的分析  

The Strategic Trend and Pathways for the Construction of a Powerful Country in Education--An Analysis Based on the 7th National Population Census

作　　者：王洪川[1,2] 胡鞍钢[2] Wang Hongchuan;Hu Angang(the School of Public Policy&Management,Tsinghua University;the Institute for Contemporary China Studies,Tsinghua University;Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学国情研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《教育研究》2021年第11期17-26,共10页Educational Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金2019年度项目“公共服务治理权配置与感知绩效管理:基于多领域自然实验的实证研究”(项目编号:71904099)的研究成果。

摘　　要：建设教育强国的战略逻辑是全面开发教育红利。通过对第七次全国人口普查数据的分析,可以清晰地看到我国人力资源国情变化,已经步入人口红利中后期,同时也迎来了教育红利上升期,主要教育指标达到世界中高收入国家前列,进入世界人力资源强国行列,人力资源地区分布不平衡明显改善。基于人口预测模型、全球经济增长模型和核算方法,对到2035年我国人口和经济趋势进行科学测算,教育事业为经济社会发展做出更大贡献的关键路径有:创造更大规模总人力资本、促进劳动生产率持续提高、缩小教育不平衡促进共同富裕、以更高投入保障人的发展能力提升。The strategic logic for the construction of a powerful country in education is to fully exploit educational dividends. Through an analysis of the data from the 7 th national population census,we can clearly see the changes in China’s national conditions for human resources:China has stepped into the mid-late period of demographic dividends,and ushered in the rising period of educational dividends;China ranks ahead of the upper middle-income countries in major educational indicators,and becomes one of the powerful countries in human resources;and the regional imbalance of human resources has been significantly reduced. This study,based on a population-forecasting model,the global economic growth model,and the economic growth-accounting method,forecasts the trends of China’s population and economy by the year 2035,and puts forward the key pathways for education to make greater contributions to economic and social development,including creating a larger scale of human capital,promoting the continuous improvement of labor productivity,alleviating the imbalance in education to promote common prosperity for all,and increasing investment to ensure people’s higher ability in development.

关 键 词：人力资源国情 教育强国 教育红利 “七普”数据 

分 类 号：C924.25[社会学—人口学] G521[文化科学—教育学]