产品质量危机事件原因挖掘模型研究  

Research on Causes Mining Model of Product Quality Crisis Event

作　　者：刘书庆[1] 王怡萍 LIU Shu-qing;WANG Yi-ping(School of Economics and Management, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710054, China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2021年第11期176-182,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(16FGL008)。

摘　　要：为有效解决因产品质量危机事件发生原因揭示不准确而导致应对措施选择与实施不当问题,根据产品质量危机影响因素发掘结果,提取出了产品质量危机事件可能原因,采用故障树法构建了质量危机事件潜在原因关系模型;将故障树法和贝叶斯网络相结合,基于专家调查与模糊集理论,推理出底层原因先验概率算法,并将其先验概率输入贝叶斯网络模型,获得底层原因后验概率及关键重要度,将后验概率及关键重要度共同作为质量危机事件关键原因诊断依据,构建了质量危机事件原因挖掘模型;通过实际案例验证了关键原因挖掘结果的准确性,为企业挖掘质量危机事件发生原因提供了理论依据。In order to effectively solve the problem of improper selection and implementation of response measures caused by inaccurate disclosure of the causes of product quality crisis events,according to the discovering results based on the influencing factors of product quality crisis,the possible causes of product quality crisis events are extracted,and the relationship model of potential causes of quality crisis events is constructed by using fault tree method.Combining the fault tree method and the Bayesian network,based on expert investigation and fuzzy set theory,we infer the underlying cause prior probability algorithm,input the prior probability into the Bayesian network model to obtain the underlying cause posterior probability and critical importance degree,and use the posterior probability and critical importance degree together as the diagnosis basis of the quality crisis key causes.We build the cause mining model of product quality crisis event.The accuracy of the key causes mining results is verified through practical cases,which provides a theoretical basis for companies to mine the causes of quality crisis events.

关 键 词：产品伤害危机 原因挖掘模型 故障树 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：F273.2[经济管理—企业管理]