基于修正复合干旱指数的干旱综合监测及其在湖北省的应用  

A Modified Composite Drought Index for Comprehensive Drought Monitoring and Its Applications in Hubei Province

作　　者：陈思 钟无双[1] Muhammad Waseem 王润 CHEN Si;ZHONG Wu-shuang;MUHAMMAD Waseem;WANG Run(School of Resources and Environmental Science,Hubei University,Wuhan 430062,China;Research Centerfor Water Resources and Water Policy,Hubei University,Wuhan 430062,China;Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering,University of Engineering and Technology,Lahore 54890,Pakistan)

机构地区：[1]湖北大学资源环境学院,湖北武汉430062 [2]湖北大学水资源与水政策研究中心,湖北武汉430062 [3]巴基斯坦拉合尔工程技术大学水资源工程卓越中心,拉合尔54890

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2021年第11期2726-2735,共10页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目(21YJCZH010)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化的大背景下,干旱的准确监测和综合评估对区域农业的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。基于干旱发生和发展过程的多因性和复杂性,综合考虑降水、气温、蒸散发和地表含水量等多个干旱因子构建了修正复合干旱指数(Modified Composite Drought Index,MCDI),并以湖北省为研究区域对该指数进行计算和验证。通过与广泛应用的单/多变量干旱指数--标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI)和综合气象指数(Composite Index,CI)的监测结果进行对比,验证其干旱监测结果的准确性。结合湖北省干旱事件的历史记录进一步对比发现,MCDI较SPI和CI的监测干旱事件准确率分别提高了33.3%和50%,且MCDI能更精确地监测到干旱事件的严重程度,更符合实际旱情。MCDI指数的提出为综合评估区域性干旱提供了一种新方法。Under the background of global climate change,accurate monitoring and comprehensive assessment of drought are of great practical significance to the sustainable development of regional agriculture.Considering multiple causes and the complexity of the occurrence of droughts,this paper employs multiple input variables,i.e.,precipitation,temperature,evapotranspiration and surface water content to construct a modified composite drought index(MCDI).The derived MCDI was calculated as a multivariate drought index to measure the drought conditions and verify its accuracy in Hubei Province in China.Compared with the widely used single/multivariate drought indexes,i.e.,standardized precipitation index(SPI)and meteorological drought composite index(CI),the accuracy of drought monitoring results is verified.Moreover,combined with the historical records in Hubei Province,it is found that the drought process monitored by MCDI is more consistent with the actual drought condition.MCDI can be employed as a new method for comprehensive assessment of regional droughts.

关 键 词：干旱监测 多变量 多源数据 湖北省 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]