新医改以来广东省卫生人力资源配置公平性及趋势预测分析  

Analysis on equity and trend prediction of health human resources allocation in Guangdong Province Since the new health care reform

作　　者：陈泽冰 杜志成[1] 宋斐[2] 郝元涛[1,3] CHEN Ze-bing;DU Zhi-cheng;SONG Fei;HAO Yuan-tao(Department of Medical Statistics,School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510080,China;Department of Human Resources,Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510120,China;Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness&Response,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院医学统计学系,广东广州510080 [2]中山大学孙逸仙纪念医院人力资源部,广东广州510120 [3]北京大学公众健康与重大疫情防控战略研究中心,北京100191

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2022年第3期61-64,共4页Soft Science of Health

基　　金：广东省医学科学技术研究基金资助项目-编制创新改革背景下公立医院人才培养模式的探索研究(A2017094)。

摘　　要：[目的]分析2009年新医改以来广东省卫生人力资源配置的现状及其公平性,并对2025年、2030年的配置情况进行预测,为广东省卫生人力资源的合理布局和优化配置提供建议。[方法]应用基尼系数测算卫生人力资源配置的公平性,并采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对卫生人力资源进行预测。[结果]新医改以来,广东省每千常住人口卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师、注册护士数分别从2009年的4.290人、1.616人、1.569人增加至2019年的6.902人、2.536人、3.097人,医护比从1∶0.97变为1∶1.22。2009-2019年广东省3类卫生人力资源的基尼系数值一直保持在0.3以下,但空间分布不均衡。经预测,2025年、2030年每千常住人口3类卫生人力资源数分别为9.649人、3.431人、4.952人和12.570人、4.377人、7.193人。[结论]新医改以来广东省卫生人力资源持续增加,公平性进一步改善,但地区间差距仍不容忽视。Objective To analyze current situation and equity of the allocation of health human resources in Guangdong Province since the new health care reform in 2009,and predict the allocation in 2025 and 2030 so as to provide suggestions for the rational distribution and optimal allocation of health human resources.Methods The Gini coefficient was used to estimate the equity of health human resources allocation,and the grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to predict health human resources.Results Since the new health care reform,the number of health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses per 1000 resident population in Guangdong Province had increased from 4.290,1.616 and 1.569 in 2009 to 6.902,2.536 and 3.097 in 2019,respectively.The ratio of doctors to nurses had changed from 1∶0.97 to 1∶1.22.From 2009 to 2019,the Gini coefficient of three types of health human resources in Guangdong Province was kept below 0.3,but the spatial distribution was unbalance.According to the prediction,the number of three types of health human resources per 1000 resident population in 2025 and 2030 will be 9.649,3.431 and 4.952,and 12.570,4.377 and 7.193,respectively.Conclusions Health human resources in Guangdong Province have been continuously increasing and equity has been improved since the new health care reform,but interzone gap cannot be ignored.

关 键 词：卫生人力资源 公平性 预测分析 健康广东 

分 类 号：R192[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]