基于组合预测模型的我国公共卫生人力资源需求预测探讨  

Demand forecast of public health human resource of China based on combined predictive model

作　　者：李思 黄亚新[1] 王丹[1] 张海波[1] 张全[1] 戴晨曦 朱卫华[1] LI Si;HUANG Yaxin;WANG Dan;ZHANG Haibo;ZHANG Quan;DAI Chenxi;ZHU Weihua(The First Affiliated Hospital,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学第一附属医院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《现代医院》2022年第2期275-278,282,共5页Modern Hospitals

基　　金：江苏省社科应用研究精品工程课题(21SYA-012);江苏省医院协会医院管理创新研究课题(JSYGY-3-2021-552)。

摘　　要：目的预测和比较2025年我国不同地区、不同学历层次和不同职称层次的公共卫生执业(助理)医师的发展趋势和人数,为卫生行政部门优化和统筹发展公共卫生人力资源提供参考依据。方法以2012-2019年我国不同类别的公共卫生执业(助理)医师人员数为基础数据,采用由GM(1,1)模型与单纯自回归滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型组合成的预测模型,对2012-2019年我国不同类别的公共卫生执业(助理)医师人员的发展趋势进行分析,预测2025年的人数。结果预测2025年,我国东部地区和中西部地区的公共卫生执业(助理)医师的数量分别为61376人和58430人;本科以下学历、本科学历和研究生学历公共卫生执业(助理)医师的数量分别为46256人、64971人和23281人;公共卫生执业(助理)医师高级以下职称和高级职称的数量分别为97011人和23947人。结论根据预测结果,我国东部和中西部地区公共卫生人员配置存在差异,且差距会不断扩大,高学历人员占比依然不足,职称结构存在僵化问题。因此,需要统筹配置公共卫生人力资源,区域间均衡发展;加强公共卫生人才培养,提升高学历人员占比;改革创新职称晋升机制,不断优化公共卫生医师职称结构,从而促进我国公共卫生事业的高质量、可持续发展。Objective To forecast and compare the trend and the number of public health practitioners and public health assistants with different educational levels and different professional titles,in different regions of China in 2025 in order to provide reference for health administrations to optimize and develop the public health human resources.Methods Based on the number of China public health practitioners and public health assistants of different categories from 2012 to 2019,the combined predictive model integrating GM(1,1)model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model was applied to predict the numbers of demanded practitioners and assistants by 2025.Results It is predicted that in the year of 2025,the numbers of public health practitioners and public health assistants in Eastern China and Central-Western China will be 61376 and 58430,respectively.In addition,the numbers of public health practitioners and public health assistants below bachelor degree,with bachelor degree and with graduate degree will be 46256,64971 and 23281,respectively.Moreover,the number of public health practitioners and public health assistants below senior professional title and with senior professional title will be 97011 and 23947,respectively.Conclusion According to the predicted results,the difference between Eastern China and Central-Western China still exists,and the gap is still widening.The proportion of highly educated personnel is still insufficient,and the professional title structure is rigid.Therefore,health administrations should coordinate the allocation of the public health human resources in different regions,reinforce the training of public health talents,increase the proportion of highly educated personnel,reform and innovate the promotion mechanism of professional titles,and constantly optimize the professional title structure,so as to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of public health service of China.

关 键 词：公共卫生 卫生人力 组合模型 需求预测 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] R-058[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]