并购双方的依赖模式、整合战略与并购绩效:一个仿真研究  

Interdependence patterns,integration strategies and M&A performance:A simulation study

作　　者：龚丽敏[1] 胡岩 江诗松[1] 陈博康 游文利 GONG Limin;HU Yan;JIANG Shisong;CHEN Bokang;YOU Wenli(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 420072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2022年第2期98-108,共11页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572131、71672130)。

摘　　要：并购后整合是决定并购绩效的关键阶段。已有研究对于整合战略究竟是促进还是抑制并购绩效仍然存在较多分歧,其原因在于已有研究没有重视整合战略的内外部依赖复杂性和时间动态性。本文考察在不同内外部相互依赖模式下,整合战略如何随时间影响并购绩效?企业采取什么样的整合战略才能实现更优的并购绩效?采用基于Agent的仿真方法,通过NK模型对不同依赖模式下的并购情境进行仿真。按照企业内部复杂性和企业间相互依赖水平的高低建立四种情境模式,采用三种整合战略来刻画不同的整合实践,仿真分析结果显示:(1)整合战略对并购绩效的正向影响在短期会增加,但在长期会逐渐下降,随时间呈现倒U形关系;(2)外部相互依赖水平与整合优势正相关,内部复杂性负向调节外部相互依赖水平与整合优势的正相关关系;这种负向调节效应在长期比在短期更加明显。本研究调解了已有研究中关于整合战略是否促进并购绩效的分歧,推动发展了并购后整合的时间视角,有助于揭示内外部相互依赖在整合战略影响并购绩效中的复杂作用。The post-merger integration(PMI)stage is often regarded as the core stage of M&A.Extant literature offers mixed results on whether certain characteristics of integration strategy(such as the speed of integration)facilitate or inhibit M&A performance.The reason lies in that they have not paid enough attention to the complexity and dynamics dimensions of the PMI process.First,the complicated internal and external interdependence of the PMI process brings about considerable uncertainty to the impact of the integration strategy on M&A performance.Second,the integration process is time consuming,and cross-sectional or sporadic research is difficult to evaluate the long-term impact of integration strategies on M&A performance.Therefore,this paper intends to study the following questions:under different patterns of internal and external interdependence,how does the integration strategy affect M&A performance over time?What kind of integration strategy could acquirer firms adopt to achieve better M&A performance?It is difficult to address this question by verbal description or empirical analysis,and thus we use simulation approach.Specifically,this paper builds a dual firm system through the agent-based modelling,i.e.the NK model.Through simulation,we could observe the effects of the main influencing factors while controlling other factors that may affect the firm′s M&A performance.In each period of the simulation,the agent as the decision-maker has the authority to make decisions on the activities in the dualenterprise system.By evaluating the alternative decision-making schemes,the agent will decide whether to change the decision of activities.Because corporate decision-making and performance levels are affected by the interdependence between internal and external ones,we construct four different interdependence patterns according to the level of internal and external interdependence of the firms,and each interdependence patterns corresponds to the scenario of PMI.In addition,this paper divides the PMI strategy into

关 键 词：并购后整合 相互依赖 整合战略 协调 NK模型 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理]