基于可达性的高速公路改扩建工程诱增交通量研究  

Research on Induced Traffic Volume of Expressway Reconstruction and Expansion Project Based on Accessibility

作　　者：吴晓明 孔繁盛 段丹军 赵延庆[3] Wu Xiaoming;Kong Fansheng;Duan Danjun;Zhao Yanqing(School of Civil Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dlian 116000,China;Shanxi Transportation Technology Research&Development Co.,Ltd.,Taiyuan 030000,China;School of Traffic&Transportation,Dalian University of Technology,Dlian 116000,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木工程学院,大连市116000 [2]山西省交通科技研发有限公司,太原市030000 [3]大连理工大学交通运输学院,大连市116000

出　　处：《北方交通》2022年第3期83-87,90,共6页Northern Communications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51678114);山西交通控股集团有限公司科技项目(19-JKKJ-4);乌鲁木齐市建设科技项目(JSKJ201806)。

摘　　要：诱增交通量是交通量的重要组成部分,针对诱增交通量的预测方法进行研究。在传统“四阶段”模型中引入可达性模型,对交通发生吸引及交通分布模型进行改进,基于实际改扩建工程案例,对比分析了传统“四阶段”模型与改进后模型的预测结果。研究结果表明:将可达性的概念引入“四阶段”模型,考虑了可达性、小区人口及经济情况对诱增交通量的影响,建立了可靠的诱增交通量预测模型,更合理地预测了高速公路改扩建工程交通量;与引入可达性因素的改进模型相比,传统的重力模型没有充分考虑诱增交通量,预测结果相对保守。引入可达性的模型在通过反馈循环解决了时间不一致性的同时,考虑可达性的改善对改扩建后诱增交通量的影响,更适用于改扩建高速公路,改扩建后的诱增交通量预测结果更接近真实情况。Induced traffic volume is an important part of traffic volume.The prediction method for the induced traffic volume is studied.The accessibility model is introduced into the traditional"four stage"model to improve the traffic generation attraction and traffic distribution model.Based on the actual reconstruction and expansion project case,the prediction results of the traditional"four stage"model and the improved model are compared and analyzed.The research results show that:the concept of accessibility is introduced into the"four stage"model,and the effects of accessibility,community population and economic conditions on the induced traffic volume are considered.A reliable induced traffic volume prediction model is established to predict the traffic volume of expressway reconstruction and expansion project more reasonably;compared with the improved model with accessibility factor,the traditional gravity model does not fully consider the induced traffic volume,and the prediction results are relatively conservative.The introduction of accessibility model solves the time inconsistency through the feedback cycle,and considers the impact of the improvement of accessibility on the induced traffic volume after the reconstruction and expansion.It is more suitable for the reconstruction and expansion of expressway,and the prediction result of induced traffic volume after the reconstruction and expansion is closer to the real situation.

关 键 词：可达性 诱增交通量 “四阶段”模型 交通量预测 高速公路改扩建 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]