基于前景理论的城际公共客运客流敏感性分析  

Sensitivity analysis of intercity public passenger flow based on prospect theory

作　　者：崔洪军 张凤云 朱敏清 姚胜 CUI Hongjun;ZHANG Fengyun;ZHU Minqing;YAO Sheng(School of Civil and Transportation,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300400,P.R.China;School of Architecture and Art Design,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300400,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300400 [2]河北工业大学建筑与艺术设计学院,天津300400

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（理工版）》2022年第2期185-192,共8页Journal of Shenzhen University(Science and Engineering)

基　　金：河北省技术创新引导计划资助项目(19970808D);河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2019202449);河北省高层次人次才资助项目(A201905003)。

摘　　要：城际客运通道不同时段交通供需矛盾日渐凸出,存在大量运输资源浪费的现象.为剖析高铁票价变动下不同时段各交通方式的客流敏感性情况,构建广义出行前景成本最小配流模型,计算城际客运通道内不同出行方式各时段的客流量,进一步构建客流敏感性模型及客流敏感度变化率模型.以中国天津至北京城际客运通道作为研究案例进行分析,结果表明,降低票价时各时段各交通方式的客流敏感度变化率接近线性增长;提高票价对各时段各交通方式的影响均较小;在相同票价浮动范围内,负供需差额时段高铁在票价降低和提高时客流敏感性均最大,票价降低对应客流敏感度约为票价提高对应客流敏感度的2倍.研究结果可为优化天津至北京城际客运通道交通结构提供理论参考.The contradiction between traffic supply and demand in different periods of intercity transport corridor becomes increasingly prominent, and there is a large waste of transportation resources. In order to analyze the passenger flow sensitivity for different modes of transportation at different periods of time under the change of highspeed railway ticket price, a generalized travel prospect cost minimum assignment model is constructed. Then, the passenger flow of different travel modes in each period of the intercity passenger transport corridor is calculated, the passenger flow sensitivity model and the sensitivity rate model are also constructed. Taking Tianjin-Beijing intercity passenger transport corridor as a case study, the results show that when the ticket price reduces, the passenger flow sensitivity change rate of each mode in each period increases linearly. The increase of ticket price has little influence on all modes of transportation in each period. In the same range of ticket price fluctuation, the sensitivity of passenger flow of high-speed railway is the largest when the ticket price changes in the period of negative supply-demand balance, and the sensitivity of passenger flow corresponding to the reduction of ticket price is about twice that of passenger flow corresponding to the increase of ticket price. The research work provides a theoretical reference for optimizing the traffic structure of Tianjin-Beijing intercity passenger transport corridor.

关 键 词：交通运输规划与管理 出行时段 客流敏感性 前景理论 城际公共客运 配流模型 

分 类 号：U116.1[交通运输工程]