基于人际关系的传染病传播仿真模型研究  

Research on simulation model of infectious disease transmission based on interpersonal relationship

作　　者：张亚楠 龙华[1,2] 邵玉斌 杜庆治[1,2] 陈腾飞 宋肖肖[3] Zhang Yanan;Long Hua;Shao Yubin;Du Qingzhi;Chen Tengfei;Song Xiaoxiao(Faculty of Information Engineering&Automation,Kunming University of Science&Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Key Laboratory of Computer Technology Application of Yunnan Province,Kunming University of Science&Technology,Kunming 650500,China;School of Public Health,Kunming Medical University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学信息工程与自动化学院,昆明650500 [2]昆明理工大学云南省计算机技术应用重点实验室,昆明650500 [3]昆明医科大学公共卫生学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2022年第4期1111-1117,共7页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：地区自然科学基金资助项目(81860318,2018FE001(-183))。

摘　　要：通过建立一种基于人际关系的传染病传播仿真模型对传染病传播过程以及预测在相关防控措施下疫情发展的趋势进行研究。基于人际关系描述个体间的接触与交互,以个体为单位建立仿真模型,根据中国卫健委平台收集武汉地区COVID-19疫情的初期数据调整模型参数,估算基本再生数(R_(0))验证模型,并模拟不同疫情防控手段的场景,探讨不同干预措施下疫情传播的趋势。建立的基于人际关系的传染病传播模型首先模拟了武汉疫情初期的传播过程,估算武汉封城前COVID-19的R_(0);然后对扬州疫情发展趋势进行了初步预测,发现疫情已进入可控阶段。通过探讨在人口密集接触场所(以学校为例)中不同的干预措施对疫情发展的影响,针对学生秋季开学提出相关防控意见,讨论了个体在社交接触网络中的社交移动距离对疫情传播的影响。By establishing a simulation model of infectious disease transmission based on interpersonal relationship,this paper studied the process of infectious disease transmission and the trend of epidemic development under relevant prevention and control measures.Described the contact and interaction between individuals based on the interpersonal relationship,this paper established an agent-based simulation model.It adjusted the model parameters based on the initial data collected by the Wuhan COVID-19 epidemic platform of the Chinese Health Commission,estimated the basic reproduction number(R_(0)),and simulated the scenarios of different epidemic prevention and control methods,explored the trend of epidemic spread under different intervention measures.The established model for the spread of infectious diseases based on interpersonal relationships first simulated the spreading process of the Wuhan epidemic in the early stage,and estimated the COVID-19 R_(0) before Wuhan was closed to the public.Subsequently,the model preliminarily predicted the development trend of the epidemic in Yangzhou and found that the epidemic had entered a controllable stage.By discussing the impact of different intervention measures on the development of the epidemic in densely populated places(in the case of schools),this paper put forward relevant prevention and control opi-nions for the current students starting in the fall.Finally,it discussed the effect of the social movement distance of individuals in social contact networks on the epidemics transmission,and it was found that an increase in the social movement distance of individuals increased the risk of transmission of infectious diseases.

关 键 词：传染病传播模型 基本再生数 人际关系 基于个体建模 干预措施 疫情预测 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]