基于灰色系统理论的物流需求预测——以连云港港为例  

Logistics Demand Forecasting Based on Grey System Theory——A Case Study of Lianyungang Port

作　　者：刘庆庆 郑琰[1] 孙萌 裴哲焱 LIU Qing-qing;ZHENG Yan;SUN Meng;PEI Zhe-yan(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2022年第3期8-11,共4页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：南京林业大学大学生创新计划项目(2021NFUSPITP0751)。

摘　　要：文中选取连云港港为例,首先根据连云港社会活动的结果 GDP与港口物流之间的关联度,构建连云港港物流需求影响因素的指标体系。基于连云港港近十年以来的物流需求,采用GM(1,1)模型对连云港港2020-2024这五年的物流需求量做出预测。根据物流需求量的预测结果,结合连云港港的物流发展现状,为促进当地的物流发展提供有效的策略。Taking Lianyungang port as an example,according to the correlation between GDP and port logistics as the result of Lianyungang social activities,this paper first constructs the index system of influencing factors of Lianyungang port logistics demand. Based on the logistics demand of Lianyungang port in recent ten years,GM( 1,1) model is used to predict the logistics demand of Lianyungang port in 2020-2024. According to the prediction results of logistics demand,combined with the logistics development status of Lianyungang port,this paper provides effective strategies to promote the local logistics development.

关 键 词：连云港港 物流需求 灰色系统理论 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]