基于时间序列分析的鹤壁市AQI预测模型  

Research on the AQI Prediction Model of Hebi City Based on Time Series Analysis

作　　者：牛艳飞 Niu Yanfei(Hebi Vocational and Technical College,Hebi,458000)

机构地区：[1]鹤壁职业技术学院,河南鹤壁458000

出　　处：《中阿科技论坛（中英文）》2022年第4期84-88,共5页China-Arab States Science and Technology Forum

摘　　要：空气质量的好坏直接影响着人们的日常生活,因此,了解空气质量的变化趋势尤为重要。文章以鹤壁市2021年6月1日—12月31日的空气质量指数(AQI)日报数据为样本,基于时间序列分析建立预测模型。首先,利用多种时间序列方法建立拟合模型,经过分析对比得出预测效果较好的ARMA模型;其次,使用此模型对鹤壁市未来10天的空气质量指数进行预测,预测结果与实际数据非常接近,并且此模型并不复杂,具有一定的应用性和可操作性;最后,参照AQI级别划分表可得出鹤壁市未来10天的空气质量所处等级。Air quality exerts a direct impact on people’s daily life,therefore,it is of particular significance to understand the changing trend of air quality.Taking the daily air quality index(AQI)data from June 1st to December 31st,2021 of Hebi City as a sample,the prediction model was established based on the time series analysis.First,multiple time series methods are used to establish the fitted model,and the ARMA model with better prediction outcome was obtained after analysis and comparison.Then,the model is employed to predict the air quality index of Hebi city in the next 10 days.The results are highly accurate,in addition,the model is easy to operate and has the value of practical application.At last,referring to the AQI grade classification table,the air quality grade of Hebi City in the next 10 days is obtained.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 AQI AR模型 MA模型 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]