政治激励、主官任期与地方教育财政支出波动——来自地级市面板数据的证据  

Political Incentive,Official Tenure and Fluctuation of Local Education Financial Expenditure:Evidence from Panel Data of Prefecture Level Cities

作　　者：金红昊 马奔[2] JIN Honghao;MA Ben(Graduate School of Education,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;School of Political Science and Public Administration,Shandong University,Qingdao 266000,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学教育学院,北京100871 [2]山东大学政治学与公共管理学院,青岛266000

出　　处：《重庆高教研究》2022年第3期72-87,共16页Chongqing Higher Education Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“高等院校经费配置对人才培养质量的影响研究”(71774007)。

摘　　要：教育投资是积累人力资本、推动知识创新和促进社会公平的重要抓手,高质量教育体系的建设有赖于教育财政投入的充足性与稳定性。在政治激励与晋升锦标赛之下,地方政府的财政决策可能出现显著的支出偏向与主官任期效应,这是否会造成教育财政支出的波动性?本文基于2003—2019年全国地级市面板数据库,使用双向固定效应模型探究地方主官任期情况对教育财政支出的影响。研究发现:(1)受以经济增长为标尺的晋升锦标赛影响,地方教育财政支出占比在市委书记的任期中后段,即第3年和第4年出现显著下滑,该结论在多种检验下维持稳健;(2)教育财政支出占比随任期的波动性集中体现在晋升预期良好的高学历、年轻官员群体中,这进一步佐证了政策不连续性背后政治激励的驱动效应;(3)随着党的十八大以来组织工作的转型,特别是对于“唯GDP论”的调整,上述教育财政支出的波动现象得到了明显遏制。Education investment is an important means to accumulate human capital,stimulate knowledge innovation and promote social equity.The construction of high-quality education system depends on the adequacy and stability of education financial investment.Under the political incentive and promotion tournament,the fiscal expenditure of local governments may have significant expenditure bias and tenure effect.Will this cause the fluctuation of educational fiscal expenditure?Based on the prefecture-level city panel database from 2003 to 2019,a two-way fixed-effect model is used to explore the impact of the term of the local chief official on education expenditure.The study shows that:affected by the promotion tournament based on economic growth,the proportion of local education financial expenditure decreased significantly in the middle and later period of the term of office of the Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee,that is,the third and fourth years,and the conclusion remained stable under various tests;the fluctuation of the proportion of education expenditure with tenure is mainly reflected in the groups of highly educated and young officials with good promotion expectations,which further proves the driving effect of political incentives behind policy discontinuity;with the transformation of organizational work since the 18 th CPC National Congress,especially the adjustment of“GDP only theory”,the fluctuation of the above-mentioned educational fiscal expenditure has been significantly curbed.

关 键 词：政治激励 教育财政支出 晋升锦标赛 多元政绩观 

分 类 号：G467[文化科学—教育学]