社会网络视角下建筑工人不安全行为传播仿真研究  

Study on propagation simulation of unsafe behaviors of construction workers from the perspective of social network

作　　者：石娟[1] 李宵香 郑光宇 张敏[1] SHI Juan;LI Xiao-xiang;ZHENG Guang-yu;ZHANG Min(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第2期859-867,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71603181);国家社科艺术规划基金项目(18DY02)。

摘　　要：为减少建筑安全生产事故的发生,基于社会网络和传播动力学理论,引入信任机制,构建了建筑工人不安全行为传播模型。通过MATLAB软件对不安全行为传播过程中信任机制参数、网络平均度、直接感染率、遗忘率的变化对系统的影响进行仿真,研究建筑工人不安全行为的传播特性。结果表明:建筑行业中工人间不信任的关系可以有效降低不安全行为的传播能力和传播速率;随网络平均度增大,传播者密度的峰值、传播速度增大,免疫者曲线增长速率更快,到达稳定状态的时间也更早,但其到达稳态的数值不会改变;直接感染率对传播者的影响最大,遗忘率对传播者和免疫者的影响最大,且直接感染率和遗忘率与传播者的密度呈正比关系,遗忘率与免疫者的密度呈反比关系。To reduce construction safety accidents,the paper introduced the trust mechanism and constructed the propagation model of unsafe behaviors of construction workers based on the theory of social network and transmission dynamics.According to relevant statistics,safety production accidents caused by unsafe behaviors of construction workers often occur.The propagation process of unsafe behaviors of construction workers is complex,which makes managers unable to carry out effective supervision in time.According to the actual construction situation of construction workers in Tianjin,we put forward a new transmission dynamics equation and determined the initial value of the model by sorting out the survey data and relevant expert opinions.MATLAB software was used to simulate the simulation diagram of the number of construction workers in each state changing over time in the process of unsafe behavior propagation under the initial state.Then,in the case of other parameters that remain the same,by adjusting the value size of each variable,we find that trust mechanism parameters,network average degree,direct infection rate,and forgetting rate have the most significant effects on the system.Finally,we analyzed the influence of these four variables on the system to reveal the propagation characteristics of unsafe behavior of construction workers.The results show that the distrust relationship among workers in the construction industry can effectively reduce the propagation capacity and propagation rate of unsafe behaviors;with the increase of the network average degree,the peak and the propagation speed of the disseminator density increase,the curve of the immune grows faster,the time to reach the steady-state is earlier while the number of the steady-state does not change;the direct infection rate has the greatest influence on the disseminator and the forgetting rate has the greatest influence on the disseminator and the immune;the direct infection rate and the forgetting rate are in direct proportion to the density of the d

关 键 词：安全社会工程 不安全行为 传染病模型 信任 社会网络 

分 类 号：X923[环境科学与工程—安全科学]