算法时代的教育预测及其研究范式转变  

Educational Forecasting in the Age of Algorithms and the Transformation of Its Research Paradigm

作　　者：万力勇 Wan Liyong(School of Education,South-Central Minzu University,Wuhan Hubei 430074)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学教育学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《远程教育杂志》2022年第3期35-44,共10页Journal of Distance Education

基　　金：2020年度国家社科基金高校思政课研究专项项目“疫情防控背景下高校思政课在线教学行为模式研究”(项目编号:20VSZ010)的研究成果。

摘　　要：教育研究具有描述、解释、预测等基本功能,受数据、算法和算力的限制,多年来教育研究的主要取径是理论思辨和统计验证,而对教育预测则可望不可即。算法时代的到来,为处于学科交叉前沿的定量社会科学研究带来新的曙光,也为开展真正意义上的教育预测研究提供了新的可能。该研究对教育预测的概念和前提进行了解析,提出了在算法时代实现教育预测的原理和方法,从宏观、微观两个方面分别阐明了算法时代教育预测的应用价值,同时对算法时代教育预测研究的范式特征进行了探讨,展现研究取向从“始于假设”向“基于数据”转变,研究数据从“人为设计”到“全量真实”转变,预测方法从传统回归向机器学习转变,研究模式从单一路径到多元融合转变的整体特征。随着算法时代大数据的广泛应用和机器学习算法的不断普及,教育预测研究将助推教育定量研究乃至整个教育研究的范式实现突破。Education research has the basic functions of description,explanation,prediction and so on.Restricted by data,algorithms and computing power,the main approaches of educational research have been theoretical speculation and statistical verification,while educational forecasting is unattainable.The advent of the age of algorithms not only brings a new dawn to the quantitative social science research at the forefront of interdisciplinary research,but also provides new possibilities for the true sense of educational forecasting.This study sorts out the concept and premise of educational forecasting,puts forward principles and methods of realizing educational forecasting in the age of algorithms,and clarifies the application value of educational forecasting in the age of algorithms from both macro and micro aspects.At the same time,it discusses the paradigm characteristics of educational forecasting research in the age of algorithms,and holds that its research orientation changes from“starting with hypothesis”to“based on data”,research data changes from“artificial design”to“full and real”,forecasting method changes from traditional regression to machine learning,and the research model changes from a single path to diversity integration.With the wide application of big data in the age of algorithms and the continuous popularization of machine learning algorithms,educational forecasting research will promote the breakthrough of quantitative educational research and even the entire paradigm of educational research.

关 键 词：教育预测 算法时代 机器学习 深度学习 教育大数据 研究范式 

分 类 号：G434[文化科学—教育学]