双循环新发展格局下来华留学生教育规模预测模型  

The prediction model of the educational scale of international students in China under the new development pattern of double cycle

作　　者：雷红艳 权亭亭 林泽华 李孝诚[1] 王国华[1] LEI Hongyan;QUAN Tingting;LIN Zehua;LI Xiaocheng;WANG Guohua(School of Mathematical Sciences,Huaibei Normal University,Huaibei 235000,China)

机构地区：[1]淮北师范大学数学科学学院,安徽淮北235000

出　　处：《高师理科学刊》2022年第5期23-30,共8页Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University

基　　金：安徽省人文社科重点项目(SK2019A0390);淮北师范大学重大教学研究项目(2020xjxyj006);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1808085MF174)。

摘　　要：来华留学生教育在双循环新发展格局中发挥着日益显著的作用.为了给精准制定我国来华留学教育政策提供科学依据,基于2001—2018年来华留学生规模,建立多元线性回归模型分析来华留学生规模的影响因素,选用线性拟合预测模型、灰色Verhulst模型和BP神经网络预测模型预测2021—2030年来华留学生人数.结果表明,我国GDP、普通高等教育专任教师数和高等教育毛入学率对来华留学生规模有显著性影响,来华留学生规模将呈现稳步增长的趋势.The education of international students in China is playing an increasingly significant role in the new development pattern of double cycle.To provide scientific basis for the accurate formulation of China′s education policy for international students in China,based on the scale of international students from 2001 to 2018,a multiple linear regression model is established to analyze the influencing factors of the scale of international students in China.The linear fitting prediction model,grey Verhulst model and BP neural network prediction model are selected to predict the number of international students in China from 2021 to 2030.The results shows that GDP,the number of full-time teachers and the gross enrollment rate of higher education have a significant impact on the scale of international students in China,and the scale of international students will show a trend of steady growth.

关 键 词：来华留学教育 线性拟合预测模型 灰色VERHULST模型 BP神经网络预测模型 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学] G648.9[理学—数学]