二维云模型和贝叶斯网络的立管风险评估方法  

Risk assessment method of risers based on two-dimensional cloud model and BN

作　　者：刘嘉豪 余杨[1,2] 张振兴[3] 余建星[1,2] 王巍巍[3] 傅一钦 LIU Jiahao;YU Yang;ZHANG Zhenxing;YU Jianxing;WANG Weiwei;FU Yiqin(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Port and Ocean Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Offshore Oil Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [2]天津大学天津市港口与海洋工程重点实验室,天津300072 [3]海洋石油工程股份有限公司,天津300072

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第5期147-154,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0310502);国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(51879189);工业和信息化部高技术船舶项目(MC-201917-C09)。

摘　　要：为探明非粘结柔性立管关键失效模式,提出一种量化评估与概率推理相结合的风险评估法。首先,基于二维云模型改进风险矩阵法;然后将事故树转化为贝叶斯网络(BN),量化评估底事件,并计算其发生概率;通过BN双向推理,求解顶事件失效概率,排查故障源头;最后针对关键失效模式提出预防措施,并通过实例验证该方法。结果表明:非粘结柔性立管失效概率为1.099×10^(-2);腐蚀、侵蚀和船舶运动3种失效模式风险等级较高,需要在维护时引起注意。In order to explore key failure modes of non-bonded flexible risers,a risk assessment method combining quantitative assessment and probability reasoning was proposed.Firstly,risk matrix method was improved based on two-dimensional cloud model.Secondly,fault tree was transformed into BN,bottom event was quantitatively evaluated and its occurrence probability was calculated.Then,failure probability of top event was solved and fault source was investigated through BN bidirectional reasoning.Finally,preventive measures were proposed for key failure modes,and the assessment method was verified with an example.The results show that the failure probability of non-bonded flexible risers is 1.099×10^(-2).Corrosion,erosion and ship movement are the three failure modes with higher risk levels,and should be paid attention to during maintenance.

关 键 词：非粘结柔性立管 二维云模型 贝叶斯网络(BN) 风险评估 风险量化分析 风险矩阵法 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]