基于损失生命年模型的灾害影响非货币化测度:以山西省气象灾害为例  

Years of life lost model-based non-monetization measurement of disaster impact:taking meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province as actual cases

作　　者：赵璐璐 刘耀龙[1] 张华明 王军[3] ZHAO Lulu;LIU Yaolong;ZHANG Huaming;WANG Jun(College of Economics and Management,Taiyuan University of Technology,Jinzhong 030600,Shanxi,China;Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030002,Shanxi,China;College of Geography Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西晋中030600 [2]山西省气象灾害防御技术中心,山西太原030002 [3]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2022年第4期1-9,共9页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“灾害韧性视角下广布型风险的驱动机制辨析与多尺度风险评估-以山西省为例”(71901159);国家社会科学基金重大项目“多灾种重大灾害风险评价、综合防范与城市韧性研究”(18ZDA105)。

摘　　要：为了更全面、准确、真实地反映自然灾害对人类生命健康和经济社会发展的影响及风险,在辨识灾害影响维度和风险层次的基础上,提出了概念化的灾害“冰山模型”风险情景,论证了“损失生命年”模型消除福利风险差异、综合测度显性影响的适用性,以损失的“年”为单位对山西省历史气象灾害的影响和风险进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)1983—2019年山西省气象灾害造成的生命年总损失为1326.62万年,相当于1980—2012年全球85个国家和地区灾害风险的9.70‰;(2)山西省气象灾害损失生命年呈现出显著的波动降低的趋势(相关系数为-0.68,伴随概率为0.0000),较死亡人口、经济损失带来的生命年损失,受灾人口部分的占比逐渐增大;(3)山西省历史广布型灾害占比97.03%,带来的损失生命年占比达87.27%,宜给予充分关注和重视。损失生命年多维度风险评估更真实,有助于反映风险的总体特征和趋势,为根本上实现减轻灾害风险提供决策参考。In order to more comprehensively,accurately and truly reflect the impacts and risks from natural disasters to human life and health as well as the economic and social development,a conceptualized disaster“iceberg model”risk scenario is put forward herein based on the identification of disaster impact dimensions and risk levels,and then applicability of the years of life lost model to eliminate welfare risk differences and integrate the dominant influence differences of measurement is demonstrated,while an actual case analysis is made on the impacts and risks from the historical meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province by taking the lost“year”as the unit.The result shows that(1)the total loss of the life years caused by the meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province from 1983 to 2019 is 13.2662 million years,equivalent to 9.70‰of the disaster risks in 85 countries and regions in the world from 1980 to 2012;(2)The years of life lost from the meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province exhibit significant fluctuatedly decreasing trends(the correlation coefficient of-0.68,adjoint probability of 0.0000)and the proportion of the population suffered from disaster is gradually increased if compared with the loss of life-years brought by deaths and economic loss;(3)the proportion of the extensive disasters in the history of Shanxi Province accounts for 97.03%along with the proportion of the loss of life-years of 87.27%,thus full attention is necessary to be paid.The multi-dimensional risk assessment of the years of life lost is more truly and then is helpful to reflect the overall characteristics and trends of the risk and provides a decision-making reference for fundamentally realizing the goal of disaster risk reduction.

关 键 词：损失生命年 冰山模型 风险情景 社会经济韧性 山西省 气候变化 气象灾害 巨灾风险 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] C93-03[经济管理—管理学]