基于云贝叶斯网络的运输飞机超轮速风险评估  

Risk Assessment on Transport Aircraft Exceeding Tire Speed Rating Based on Cloud Bayesian Network

作　　者：钱宇[1] 龙涛 QIAN Yu;LONG Tao(School of Flight Technology,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院飞行技术学院,广汉618307

出　　处：《航空工程进展》2022年第3期171-178,共8页Advances in Aeronautical Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金民航联合基金(U2033213);民航飞行技术与飞行安全重点实验室自主研究项目(FZ2020ZZ01)。

摘　　要：起飞超轮速严重威胁飞行安全,为了有效评估运输飞机起飞时在不确定性因素影响下的超轮速风险水平,提出一种基于云模型和贝叶斯网络的评估模型。选取抬轮速度、总重、低压转子转速、抬轮率、抬轮时机、升降舵控制量、风的分量、总温8个指标,建立超轮速风险指标体系;运用基于启发式高斯云变换算法和正向高斯云算法的云模型,实现超轮速风险等级软划分和指标离散化,并确定各指标的先验概率;构建超轮速风险的贝叶斯网络,基于所建网络和节点信息计算节点后验概率,通过网络反向诊断得到超轮速的主要诱因。结合实际运行数据进行仿真验证,结果表明:评估结果符合实际情况,验证了模型的有效性。研究结果可为超轮速事件分析、民航运行安全风险管理提供理论依据。The exceeding tire speed rating during takeoff will seriously threaten the flight safety. In order to effectively evaluate the risk level of the exceeding tire speed rating during take-off of the transport aircraft,an evaluation model based on cloud model and Bayesian network is proposed. This research selects eight risk indexes,including rotation speed,total weight,low pressure rotor speed,rotation rate,rotation time,elevator control amount,wind component and total air temperature to build the risk index system for exceeding tire speed rating. Then,the cloud model based on heuristic Gaussian cloud transformation algorithm and forward Gaussian cloud algorithm is used to realize the soft classification of exceeding tire speed rating risk level and the discretization of the indexes,and the prior probability of the indexes is calculated. Moreover,the Bayesian network for exceeding tire speed rating risk is constructed,and based on the established network and nodes information,the posterior probability of the nodes is calculated and the main inducement of exceeding tire speed rating is obtained through network reverse diagnosis. Finally,the simulation experiment has been completed by using the actual operation data from the airlines,and the results show that the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which verify the effectiveness of the model. Therefore,the research can provide theoretical basis for the exceeding tire speed rating analysis and civil aviation takeoff safety risk management.

关 键 词：飞行安全 轮速 云模型 贝叶斯网络 风险评估 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]