贝叶斯模型中期刊影响因子的信度调整估计  

Credibility Adjustment Estimation of Journal Impact Factors in Bayesian Model

作　　者：温利民[1,2] 周金亮 王伟 WEN Limin;ZHOU Jinliang;WANG Wei(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang,330022,China;Research Center of Management Science and Engineering,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang,330022,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Ningbo University,Ningbo,315211,China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学数学与统计学院,南昌330022 [2]江西师范大学管理科学与工程研究中心,南昌330022 [3]宁波大学数学与统计学院,宁波315211

出　　处：《应用概率统计》2022年第3期344-356,共13页Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:71761019);江西省自然科学基金项目(批准号:20203ACB21227)资助.

摘　　要：期刊影响因子是判定期刊质量的重要标准.本文对影响期刊质量的参数建立了贝叶斯模型,结合已有的期刊影响因子计算公式,利用信度理论方法,给出了期刊影响因子的校正方法,并得到了超参数的估计,证明了估计的统计性质.通过模拟,检验了估计量的相合性和收敛速度.最后,对国内二十几种数学类期刊的影响因子的校正公式进行了实证分析.Journal impact factor is an important criterion for judging the quality of journals.In this paper,a Bayesian model is established for journal quality parameters,combined with existing journal impact factor calculation formulas,by using the theory of the credibility theory,a correction method for journal impact factors is given.We also obtained the estimation of structure parameters.The statistical properties of the estimation are discussed.Through simulations,the consistency and convergence speed of the estimators are tested.Finally,the empirical analysis of the correction formulas of the impact factors of more than twenty mathematics journals in China.

关 键 词：影响因子 指数分布族 共轭先验分布 信度估计 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]