基于GM(1,1)-神经网络模型的安徽省财政收入预测  

Fiscal revenue forecast of Anhui Province based on GM(1,1)-neural network model

作　　者：刘茂茹 王丰效 LIU Maoru;WANG Fengxiao(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Kashi University,Kashi 844000,China)

机构地区：[1]喀什大学数学与统计学院,新疆喀什844000

出　　处：《高师理科学刊》2022年第6期17-22,共6页Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11XTJ001)。

摘　　要：为分析安徽省财政收入增长趋势,选取2010-2019年与财政收入相关的影响因素的数据资料进行统计分析.采用Lasso回归法筛选出财政收入的主要影响因素,进一步建立财政收入主要影响因素的GM(1,1)预测模型,并根据神经网络模型预测出未来财政收入.结果表明,2010年至今安徽省财政收入呈现持续增长趋势,2020年安徽省财政收入预测值为64 480 128万元,2021年安徽省财政收入预测值为70 866 816万元.In order to analyze the growth trend of fiscal revenue in Anhui Province,the data related to fiscal revenue and its related influencing factors from 2010 to 2019 are selected for statistical analysis.Lasso regression method is used to screen out the main influencing factors of fiscal revenue,and further the GM(1, 1) prediction model of the main influencing factors of fiscal revenue is established.The future fiscal revenue is predicted according to the neural network model.The results show that the fiscal revenue of Anhui Province has been increasing continuously since 2010.The predicted fiscal revenue of Anhui Province in 2020 is 64 480.128 million yuan, and the predicted fiscal revenue of Anhui Province in 2021 is 708 668.16 million yuan.

关 键 词：财政收入 Lasso回归法 GM(1 1)模型 神经网络模型 安徽省 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学] F812.41[理学—数学]