基于交通可达性的同城化地区城际客流生成模型构建  

Intercity Passenger Flow Generation Model Based on Transportation Accessibility

作　　者：阎泳楠 罗典 YAN Yongnan;LUO Dian(Foshan Urban Planning and Design Institute,Foshan 528000,China)

机构地区：[1]佛山市城市规划设计研究院,佛山528000

出　　处：《交通与运输》2022年第4期96-101,共6页Traffic & Transportation

摘　　要：城际客流预测是规划同城化地区交通一体化设施的重要依据。通过阐述城际客流生成量与城市客流生成量的差异性,提出可量化城际客流生成量影响因素的交通可达性指标,并在此基础上构建城际客流生成模型。以广佛城际客流生成模型构建为例,利用多源大数据对模型进行参数标定。研究结果表明,基于交通可达性的城际客流生成模型能够综合考虑区位、距离、交通基础设施等因素对城际客流生成量的影响;区位成为影响城际出行生成量的关键因素,交通基础设施可降低空间距离对城市外围小区城际客流生成量的影响;中区层面广佛城际生成总量预测精度为92.1%,说明模型具有较好的可行性、有效性,可为精细化的城际客流预测提供有效的数据支持。The forecast of intercity passenger flow is an important basis for planning integrated transportation infrastructures.By discussing the difference of the intercity and urban passenger flow generation,this paper introduces a transportation accessibility index to quantify the influence factors of intercity passenger flow generation and construct an intercity passenger flow generation model based on the accessibility index.Taking the analysis of Guangzhou-Foshan intercity passenger flow generation as an example,the paper calibrated the models with multi-source big data.The results show that this model can comprehensively consider the influence of location,distance and traffic infrastructure on the generation of intercity passenger flow.Location has become a key factor affecting the generation of intercity travel,and transportation infrastructure can reduce the impact of spatial distance on intercity passenger flow generation in urban peripheral areas.The prediction accuracy of Guangzhou-Foshan intercity passenger flow generation based on the middle level is 92.1%,which indicates this model has better applicability and validity,and it can provide effective data for the refined forecast of intercity passenger flow.

关 键 词：同城化 城际 客流预测 客流生成 交通可达性 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]