基于大数据的省域老年教育发展成效PCA-DEA模型构建与实证研究  

The Construction of PCA-DEA Model and Empirical Research on the Development Effectiveness of Provincial Elderly Education Based on Big Data

作　　者：沈光辉 杨惠 陈诚 程方昭 王炜 Shen Guanghui;Yang Hui;Chen Cheng;Cheng Fangzhao;Wang Wei(The Open University of Fujian,Fuzhou Fujian 350013;Digital Fujian Big Data Institute for Lifelong Education,Fuzhou Fujian 350003;Shanghai Development Center of Computer Software Technology,Shanghai 201112)

机构地区：[1]福建开放大学,福建福州350013 [2]数字福建终身教育大数据研究所,福建福州350003 [3]上海计算机软件技术开发中心,上海201112 [4]福建开放大学终身教育服务中心

出　　处：《远程教育杂志》2022年第4期92-101,共10页Journal of Distance Education

基　　金：福建省教育厅、财政厅2018-2020年终身教育重大课题研究项目“基于大数据分析的福建终身教育模式路径研究”(项目编号:JZ190001);福建省教育厅、财政厅2018-2020年终身教育重点课题研究项目“大数据视域中社区教育数据服务平台的开发和应用研究——以福建省为例”(项目编号:JZ190128)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：在我国人口老龄化程度持续加深的背景下,老年教育发展成效的分析与评价,对于推动老年教育事业高质量发展具有重要作用。构建基于大数据的省域老年教育发展成效PCA-DEA模型,通过大数据和人工智能技术抽取老年教育的关键词,结合德尔菲专家法进一步确认模型的初始指标,再利用主成分分析法将诸多指标降维成少数几类综合指标,并融入DEA发展效率模型,以评价福建各地区老年教育发展成效,最后通过回归模型分析其影响因素。PCA-DEA模型的构建,基于定量和定性研究的结合,以数据要素增强模型的科学性,避免传统模型指标确认的随意性,从教育投入产出效率入手,区别于过往聚焦教育投入的对比研究,让评价结果更精准。研究结果表明:福建省大部分地区的老年教育发展成效位于正常水平之上,但福州市、三明市和南平市呈现成效不足的状态,其中,南平市老年教育发展低效情况最为明显。针对发展低效的地区,一方面,应考虑加大老年教育基础设施、师资队伍、经费、数字化资源等方面的投入;另一方面,应考虑调整投入结构,其中专职师生比是最显著影响老年教育发展成效的因素,应优先提高专职教师的资金投入。PCA-DEA模型不仅为老年教育发展成效评价提供新的研究思路,也为今后相关的实证研究提供借鉴。With the background of population aging deepening continuously in China,the analysis and evaluation of the development effectiveness of elderly education plays an important role in promoting the high-quality development of elderly education.The paper constructed the PCA-DEA model on the development effectiveness of provincial elderly education based on big data,extracted key words of elderly education by big data and artificial intelligence technology,confirmed the initial index of the model with Delphi method,and reduced many indexes into a few comprehensive indexes by principal component analysis,then evaluated the development effectiveness of elderly education in Fujian by integrating DEA model and analyzed the influencing factors by regression model.The model was based on the combination of quantitative and qualitative research,enhancing the scientificity by data to avoid the randomness in confirming indexes by traditional way,which had a more accurate evaluation result.The PCA-DEA model focused on the efficiency of education input-output,which was different from the previous studies paying attention to comparison of education investment.The results showed that the development effectiveness of elderly education was at a normal level in most areas of Fujian Province,but Fuzhou,Sanming,and Nanping showed inefficient results.Nanping was the most inefficient area in Fujian Province.On the one hand,we should consider increasing investment in infrastructure,teaching staff,funds and digital resources for the elderly education in the inefficient areas.On the other hand,we should also consider adjusting the structure of investment in these areas.The ratio of full-time teachers to students is the most important factor in affecting the development effectiveness of elderly education,and we should give priority to improving the investment of full-time teachers.The PCA-DEA model not only provides new research ideas for the evaluation on the development effectiveness of elderly education,but also provides reference for rele

关 键 词：老年教育 大数据 人工智能技术 PCA-DEA模型 效率评价 

分 类 号：G420[文化科学—课程与教学论]