经济发展与住宅市场异速增长时空格局及其形成机理——以长三角地区为例  

THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF THE ALLOMETRIC GROWTH OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING MARKET:A CASE OF YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

作　　者：尹上岗 杨山[1,2] 朱奕衡 YIN Shang-gang;YANG Shan;ZHU Yi-heng(School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023

出　　处：《人文地理》2022年第3期140-150,共11页Human Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41771171,42171200);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX20_1173,KYCX21_1291)。

摘　　要：住宅具有重要的社会稳定功能,其市场发展状况与经济增长关系是实现城市更高质量发展和畅通国内大循环的关键。本文以GDP表征经济发展,住宅价格和租金表征住宅市场发展状况,利用空间变差函数、异速增长模型和增强回归树模型探究2008—2018年长三角地区三者的时空格局及演化机理。研究表明:(1)长三角地区城市经济规模、住宅价格和住宅租金空间格局具有较强的稳定性,呈现出“一极多核”形态。(2)在纵向和横向异速上,经济规模—住宅价格、经济规模—住宅租金均以负异速增长为主,前者异速增长系数多高于后者。(3)在影响三者异速增长的因素中,科技发展水平、财政投入水平、城市人口规模、设施供给水平、产业发展水平和城乡收入差距是经济规模与住宅市场异速增长的主导因素;经济、人口、社会和行政等因素影响的差异性,在预期因素的催化下,使经济规模—住宅价格异速增长高于经济规模—住宅租金。Housing has an important social stability function, and the relationship between its market development and economic growth is the key to achieving higher-quality urban development and smoothing the domestic cycle. Using spatial variogram, allometric growth model and enhanced regression tree model to explore the spatial and temporal patterns and evolution mechanism of the three in the Yangtze River Delta from 2008 to 2018. The results show that: 1) The spatial patterns of urban economic scale, residential prices, and residential rental in the Yangtze River Delta region have strong stability, showing a "one-pole multi-core" pattern. 2) In terms of vertical and horizontal heterogeneous rates, economic scale-residential prices and economic scale-residential rents are both dominated by negative allometric growth, the former’s allometric growth coefficient is much higher than the latter. 3) Among the factors that affect the allometric growth of the three, technological development level, financial investment level, urban population scale, facility supply level, industrial development level and urban-rural income gap are the leading factors for the allometric growth between economic scale and housing market.

关 键 词：经济规模 住宅价格 住宅租金 异速增长 长三角地区 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]