基于数据驱动的SEIQRW新冠肺炎模型及最优控制  

SEIQRW Model for COVID-19 and Optimal Control Based on Data-Driven

作　　者：苗慧 李淑萍[1] MIAO Hui;LI Shuping(School of Science,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,China)

机构地区：[1]中北大学理学院,山西太原030051

出　　处：《中北大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第5期396-402,共7页Journal of North University of China(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(12001501,12071445);山西省青年科学基金资助项目(201901D211216)。

摘　　要：结合新冠病毒的传播特点,提出了一个基于“易感、潜伏、患病、隔离、恢复、环境病毒”的SEIQRW新冠肺炎传播动力学模型.根据下一代矩阵法计算了基本再生数R_(0),应用Hurwitz判据和矩阵理论分析了平衡点的稳定性,并利用庞特里亚金极大值原理找到了最优控制策略.数值模拟验证了理论结果,敏感性分析确定了参数对R_(0)的重要性,通过拟合验证了带环境病毒的模型和实际数据更加吻合.最优控制表明,控制措施可以有效减少新冠病毒通过环境向人类的传播.Combining the transmission characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2,an SEIQRW COVID-19 transmission dynamics model is proposed that considers“susceptible,exposed,infected,quarantined,recovered and environmental virus”.The basic reproduction number R_(0) was calculated according to the next-generation matrix method,the stability of the equilibrium point was analyzed by applying the Hurwitz criterion and matrix theory,and the optimal control strategy was found by using the Pontryagin maximum principle.Numerical simulations verify the theoretical results,sensitivity analysis determines the importance of parameters to R_(0),and fitting verify that the model with environmental virus is more consistent with the actual data than the model without environmental virus.Optimal control shows that control measures can effectively reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus to humans through the environment.

关 键 词：环境病毒 基本再生数 数据拟合 敏感性分析 最优控制 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]