GM(1,1)模型初始条件优化及其在GNSS钟差预报中的应用  

Optimized Initial Condition of GM(1,1)Model and Its Application in GNSS Clock Offset Prediction

作　　者：谭小容 许江宁[1] 何泓洋[1] 陈丁[1,2] 梁益丰 吴苗[1] TAN Xiaorong;XU Jiangning;HE Hongyang;CHEN Ding;LIANG Yifeng;WU Miao(College of Electrical Engineering,Naval University of Engineering,717 Jiefang Road,Wuhan 430033,China;School of Electronic Engineering,Jiujiang University,551 East-Qianjin Road,Jiujiang 332005,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学电气工程学院,武汉市430033 [2]九江学院电子工程学院,江西省332005

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2022年第9期919-924,共6页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41804076,61503404);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ211814);九江学院科技项目(2014SKYB009)。

摘　　要：针对现有改进GM(1,1)模型在导航卫星钟差预报中性能无明显提升的问题,提出通过优化初始条件来提高钟差预报精度的方法。首先构建初始条件未知的GM(1,1)预报模型,然后采用原始序列的最新分量求解初始条件,最后利用该模型对IGS提供的精密钟差数据进行预报实验。结果表明,将初始条件优化后的GM(1,1)模型用于钟差预报切实可行,且预报精度比传统GM(1,1)模型有较大提高。Considering the problem that the performance of the existing improved GM(1,1)model is not significantly improved in satellite clock offset prediction,we present a method to improve prediction accuracy by optimizing the initial conditions.Firstly,we construct the GM(1,1)prediction model with unknown initial conditions,and then use the latest component of the original sequence to solve the initial conditions.Finally,we use the model to predict the precise clock offset data provided by IGS.The results show that the GM(1,1)model with optimized initial conditions is feasible for clock offset prediction,and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved compared with the traditional GM(1,1)model.

关 键 词：卫星钟差 预报建模 灰色模型 初始条件 精度分析 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]