湖北黄石新型冠状病毒肺炎流行模式及防控效果研究  

Epidemic pattern of COVID-19 and intervention effectiveness in Huangshi City, Hubei Province

作　　者：於成俊 赵克提[2] 袁建明[3] 朱清 毛俊杰 胡明霞 张彬[1] 孙怡华[3] 秦刚 YU Chengjun;ZHAO Keti;YUAN Jianming;ZHU Qing;MAO Junjie;HU Mingxia;ZHANG Bin;SUN Yihua;QIN Gang(Department of Infectious Diseases,the Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University,Nantong 226001;Huangshi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hubei Province;Nantong Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Province;School of Pharmacy,Nantong University;School of Public Health,Nantong University;School of Medicine,Nantong University)

机构地区：[1]南通大学附属医院感染科,南通226001 [2]湖北省黄石市疾病预防控制中心 [3]江苏省南通市疾病预防控制中心 [4]南通大学药学院 [5]南通大学公共卫生学院 [6]南通大学医学院

出　　处：《南通大学学报（医学版）》2022年第3期219-224,共6页Journal of Nantong University(Medical sciences)

基　　金：南通市科技局项目(HS2020001,XG202004-5,XG202005-2)。

摘　　要：目的:了解2020年湖北省黄石市新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19)疫情的流行病学特征,并评估防控效果。方法:收集2020年1—3月黄石市COVID-19病例的个案信息及不同时间的防控措施,估算关键事件发生的时间间隔、潜伏期(incubation period, IP)、倍增时间(doubling time, DT)及序列间隔(serial interval, SI),采用指数增长法(exponential growth method, EGR)估算再生数。结果:黄石市COVID-19感染者共计1 065例,其中发病人数1 015例,病死率为3.74%(38/1 015),每日新增发病人数峰值出现在“封城”后第9天。黄石市平均IP为4.6 d,平均SI为6.3,平均DT为2.3 d,从“起飞点”到达DT6为38 d,而武汉市仅用了9 d。2020年1月23日前基本再生数为4.80,1月24—30日和1月31日—2月25日的有效再生数分别为1.12和0.19。结论:基于流行病学调查和传播动力学模型分析,黄石市的早期非药物性干预措施改变了COVID-19疫情流行模式,实现“缓疫压峰”效果。Objective: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Huangshi City, Hubei Province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control measures. Methods: Collected the information of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Huangshi from January to March 2020. The time interval between key events, incubation period(IP), doubling time(DT), serial interval(SI), and exponential growth method(EGR) based reproduction numbers were used to describe and analyze the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19. Results: There were a total of 1 065 infected cases of COVID-19 in Huangshi City, including 50 asymptomatic cases. The case fatality rate was 3.74%(38/1 015). The peak of new cases per day appeared on the 9th day after the “lockdown”. The average IP and SI were 4.6 days and 6.3 days respectively.The average DT was 2.3 days. To reach DT6 from the take-off date, Huangshi took 28 days, while Wuhan took 9 days. The basic reproduction number for Huangshi was 4.80. The effective reproduction numbers were 1.12 and 0.19 for periods of2020.1.24—30 and 2020.1.31—2.25 respectively. Conclusion: Based on the epidemiological investigations and transmission dynamics models, Huangshi′s early non-pharmaceutical interventions could slow the progression of the epidemic, resulting in a flatter epidemic curve.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 潜伏期 倍增时间 序列间隔 基本再生数 黄石市 

分 类 号：R745.7[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]