基于空间联系强度的城际出行分布预测模型  

Prediction model of intercity travel distribution based on spatial connection strength

作　　者：彭辉[1] 王威[1] 徐培娟 潘卫龙 刘丹[2] PENG Hui;WANG Wei;XU Peijuan;PAN Weilong;LIU Dan(School of Transportation Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China;School of Highway,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710064 [2]长安大学公路学院,西安710064

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2022年第4期43-51,共9页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52072044);陕西省科技研发计划(2020JQ-390,2020JQ-363);中央高校基本科研业务专项资金(300102342104)。

摘　　要：为了更加精确地预测城市群城际出行分布量,研究城市群空间联系对出行分布量的影响,构建了基于空间联系强度的城际出行分布预测模型.首先,基于传统引力模型,引入结构方程模型从多维度搭建了城市质量计算方法;提出城市群多模式空间联系概念,将其空间联系细化为商务联系、旅游联系、其他联系3类,在充分考虑企业关联度、母子公司关联系数、旅游联系系数等参数的基础上建立3类空间联系强度模型;其次,将空间联系强度作为参数引入双约束重力模型,从出行目的比例获取、出行生成预测、出行分布量计算3个方面建立了城市群不同活动模式出行分布量预测方法;最后,以关中平原城市群为案例,利用构建的出行分布模型进行城际出行分布量预测,分析模型的有效性和可行性,将预测结果与实测值进行校核,结果表明:改进模型的预测结果与实测值之间的平均误差为11.49%,比传统模型低4.29%,有效地提高了模型预测的精度.To predict accurately the intercity travel distribution in urban agglomerations,the influence of spatial connections in urban agglomeration on travel distribution is studied,and a prediction model of intercity travel distribution based on spatial connections strength is constructed.First,the structural equation model is innovatively applied to the traditional gravity model to build a city quality calculation method from multiple dimensions.Furthermore,the definition of multi-mode spatial connection of urban agglomerations is proposed,which is classified into three types:business connection,tourism connection,and other connections.The strength models for these three types of spatial connection are built after fully considering the enterprise correlation degree,parent-subsidiary correlation coefficient,tourism connection coefficient and other parameters.Second,the spatial connection strength is used as a parameter in the dual-constraint gravity model,and the travel distribution prediction method for different activity modes in urban agglomerations is established from the following three aspects:acquisition of travel purpose ratio,prediction of travel generation,and calculation of travel distribution.Finally,taking the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration as a case study,the constructed travel distribution model is used to forecast the intercity travel distribution volume,analyze the validity and feasibility of the model,and verify the forecast results with the measured values.The results show that the average error between the predicted results of the model and the measured values is 11.49%,which is4.29%lower than that of the traditional model.In this way,the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of model prediction.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通需求预测 城际出行分布 空间联系强度 重力模型 城市群 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]