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作 者:苏强[1] 陆书翔 SU Qiang;LU Shuxiang(School of economics and management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)
出 处:《工业工程与管理》2022年第4期50-57,共8页Industrial Engineering and Management
基 金:国家自然科学基金项目(71972146,71974127)。
摘 要:针对突发疫情环境下的医疗物资需求动态时变的特点,考虑医疗物资供应比例与康复率的关系,设计了改进的SEIR模型。该模型具有以下两个特点:感染者和潜伏者均有病毒传播能力且传染率不同;感染者康复情况依赖于医疗物资的供给情况。在此基础上,将疫情扩散模型与物资分配模型相结合,构建了多阶段的应急医疗物资动态分配优化模型,并设计了混合整数规划与粒子群算法的混合算法进行求解。以新型冠状病毒为背景进行算例测试,结果表明提出的模型和算法能够为应急医疗物资管理提供决策支持。An improved SEIR model was designed for epidemic outbreak. According to timevarying demand for medical supplies,considering the relationship between the proportion of medical supplies and the recovery rate,the model had the following two characteristics:Both infected and latent persons had the ability of transmission and different infection rates;The recovery of infected persons depended on the availability of medical supplies. On this basis,this paper combined the epidemic spread model with the material distribution model,constructed a multi-stage dynamic distribution optimization model of emergency medical supplies. A hybrid algorithm of mixed integer programming and particle swarm optimization was designed to solve the problem. The experimental results show that the model and algorithm proposed in this paper can provide decision support for emergency medical supplies management.
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