考虑第三方回收的N级闭环供应链牛鞭效应分析  

Analysis on the Bullwhip Effect of Multi-echelon Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering Third-party Recycling

作　　者：窦珂 阿布都热合曼·卡的尔 DOU Ke;ABUDUREHEMAN·Kadier(School of Information Management,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumchi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学信息管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2022年第10期43-47,51,共6页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划自然科学重点项目(XJEDU2019I023);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目(XJUFE2021K019)。

摘　　要：考虑由一个零售商、多级经销商、一个制造商和一个第三方回收商构成的N级闭环供应链系统,构建了基于AR(1)需求过程和均方误差预测技术的制造商牛鞭效应模型,对该模型的Lyapunov特征指数进行计算,分析引入回收机制后的N级闭环供应链系统的稳定性。研究表明:引入回收机制能够有效缓解N级闭环供应链的牛鞭效应,可以通过调整回收比例和前置期来提高系统的稳定性。Considering the multi-echelon closed-loop supply chain system composed of a retailer,a multi-level distributor,a manufacturer and a third-party recycler,a manufacturer bullwhip effect model based on AR(1)demand process and mean square error prediction technology is constructed,and the Lyapunov characteristic exponents of the model are calculated,and the stability of the multi-echelon closed-loop supply chain system after the introduction of the recycling mechanism is analyzed.The result shows that the introduction of recycling mechanism can effectively alleviate the bullwhip effect of multi-echelon closed-loop supply chains,and can improve the stability of the system by adjusting the proportion of recycling and the lead period.

关 键 词：闭环供应链 牛鞭效应 LYAPUNOV指数 供应链管理 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]