Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume  

作　　者：Long-Bao Yang Gang Zhao Xin-Xing Tantai Cai-Lan Xiao Si-Wen Qin Lei Dong Dan-Yan Chang Yuan Jia Hong Li 

机构地区：[1]Department of Gastroenterology,The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710004,Shaanxi Province,China [2]Department of Medicine,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710004,Shaanxi Province,China

出　　处：《World Journal of Clinical Cases》2022年第32期11743-11752,共10页世界临床病例杂志

基　　金：Supported by Key Research and Development Plan of Shaanxi Province,No.2020SF-222。

摘　　要：BACKGROUND Upper endoscopy is the gold standard for predicting esophageal varices in China.Guidelines and consensus suggest that patients with liver cirrhosis should undergo periodic upper endoscopy,most patients undergo their first upper endoscopy when esophageal variceal bleeds.Therefore,it is important to develop a non-invasive model to early diagnose esophageal varices.AIM To develop a non-invasive predictive model for esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume in viral cirrhosis patients.METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study based on viral cirrhosis crowd in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University.By collecting the basic information and clinical data of the participants,we derived the independent risk factors and established the prediction model of esophageal varices.The established model was compared with other models.Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration plot and decision curve analysis were used to test the discriminating ability,calibration ability and clinical practicability in both the internal and external validation.RESULTS The portal vein diameter,the liver and spleen volume,and volume change rate were the independent risk factors of esophageal varices.We successfully used the factors to establish the predictive model[area under the curve(AUC)0.87,95%CI:0.80-0.95],which showed better predictive value than other models.The model showed good discriminating ability,calibration ability and the clinical practicability in both modelling group and external validation group.CONCLUSION The developed non-invasive predictive model can be used as an effective tool for predicting esophageal varices in viral cirrhosis patients.

关 键 词：GASTROSCOPY Esophageal varices Liver volume CIRRHOSIS Non-invasive diagnostic model Spleen volume 

分 类 号：R571.3[医药卫生—消化系统]