基于Wiener过程的高压晶闸管寿命预测方法  

Life prediction method for high voltage thyristor based on Wiener process

作　　者：丁志林 胡风 余春波 文武[2] DING Zhilin;HU Feng;YU Chunbo;WEN Wu(Maintenance Company,State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company,Chengdu 610041,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]国网四川省电力公司检修公司,四川成都610041 [2]武汉大学电气与自动化学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2022年第10期1044-1049,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目资助(编号:5500-202026064A-0-0-00)。

摘　　要：采用加速老化的试验方法研究了高压晶闸管通态饱和压降及恢复电荷等性能参数的退化规律,将基于Wiener退化过程的寿命预测方法应用于高压晶闸管的寿命预测,采用求最大似然的期望最大(expectation maximization, EM)算法迭代计算出Wiener模型中的潜在分布参数,有效解决了高压晶闸管寿命预测时样品少、寿命数据缺失的问题。基于Wiener退化过程的寿命预测方法还可以根据晶闸管应用过程中的实时监测数据及时预测晶闸管的剩余寿命,为高压换流阀维修方案的制定提供参考。Thyristors used in high voltage direct current converter valve are products with long life and high reliability. The life prediction of high voltage thyristors often has the problems of few samples, long test period and high cost. In this paper, the degradation law of performance parameters such as on-state saturation voltage drop and recovery charge of high voltage thyristors is studied by means of accelerated aging test method, and the residual life of thyristor is predicted based on Wiener degradation process. The potential distribution parameters in Wiener model are calculated by the maximum likelihood expectation maximization(EM) iteration method, which effectively solves the problems of few samples and missing life data in predicting the lifetime of thyristors. The life prediction method based on Wiener degradation process can also predict the remaining life of thyristor in time according to the real-time monitoring data in the application process of thyristors, and can provide a reference for the formulation of maintenance plan of high voltabe converter valve.

关 键 词：高压晶闸管 剩余寿命预测 WIENER过程 EM算法 

分 类 号：TM23[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]