考虑无差异阈值条件下基于TTB的出行方式选择模型  

Travel Mode Choice Model Based on TTB Considering the Indifference Threshold

作　　者：张新洁 关宏志[2] 孙可朝[3] ZHANG Xinjie;GUAN Hongzhi;SUN Kechao(School of Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,Inner Mongolia,China;College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Comprehensive Transportation Research Center,China Academy of Transportation Science,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学土木工程学院,内蒙古包头014010 [2]北京工业大学城建学部,北京100124 [3]交通运输部科学研究院综合运输研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第11期34-40,80,共8页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71971005);北京市自然科学基金项目(8202003);内蒙古自治区高等学校科技研究项目(NJZZ21023)。

摘　　要：无差异阈值是交通需求预测中重要的影响因素之一。针对出行者路径走行时间和车辆寻泊时间的不确定性,以出行时间预算(TTB)作为出行者时间的选择标准,建立了不确定条件下基于无差异阈值的出行方式选择模型;基于多类用户的情景,分析了不确定性对出行者选择行为的影响。研究结果表明:当无差异阈值一定时,随着期望准时到达概率增加,更多的出行者会选择出行时间可靠性高的方式出行;在考虑无差异阈值条件下,期望准时到达概率对方式选择行为影响变小,且无差异阈值越大其影响越小;在多类用户情形下,期望准时到达概率越大的出行者出行时间预算越大,更倾向于选择可靠性高的方式出行。Indifference threshold is one of the important influencing factors in traffic demand forecasting.In view of the uncertainty of traveler’s path travel time and vehicle parking time,the travel mode selection model based on indifference threshold under uncertainty conditions was established,which took the travel time budget(TTB)as the selection standard of travel time for travelers.Moreover,the scenario of multiple users was also considered,and the influence of uncertainty on traveler’s choice behavior was analyzed.The research results show that when the indifference threshold is fixed,as the expected punctual arrival probability increases,more travelers will choose the way with high travel time reliability.When the indifference threshold is considered,the expected punctual arrival probability has less influence on the behavior of mode selection,and the greater the indifference threshold is,the smaller the influence is.In the case of multiple users,travelers who expect a higher probability of punctual arrival will have a larger travel time budget and are more likely to choose a more reliable way to travel.

关 键 词：交通工程 无差异阈值 出行时间预算 可靠性 随机用户均衡 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]