广东工程海域极值风速计算的YanMeng风场模型  

Calculation of the extreme wind speed for offshore platforms in Guangdong based on the YanMeng wind field model

作　　者：林沛元 文泽国 刘海鹏 蔡彦枫 郭成超 LIN Peiyuan;WEN Zeguo;LIU Haipeng;CAI Yanfeng;GUO Chengchao(Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519080,China;School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,China Energy Engineering Group,Guangzhou 510663,China)

机构地区：[1]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519080 [2]中山大学土木工程学院,广东广州510275 [3]中国能源建设集团广东省电力设计研究院有限公司,广东广州510663

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2022年第6期104-112,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52008408);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2021A1515012088);广州市科技计划(202102021017)。

摘　　要：为提高我国东南沿海工程海域极值风速估计的可靠性,通过搭建YanMeng风场模型进行台风数值模拟,并与实测资料进行对比,验证了风场模型在我国东南沿海工程海域的可行性。随后根据CMA热带气旋最佳路径数据集对台风关键参数进行概率建模,利用Monte Carlo法模拟了工程海域1 000年时段的台风极值风速序列,根据Gumbel分布进行了50年一遇极值风速的推算。研究发现YanMeng风场模型模拟效果较好,文中结果可以作为广东沿海海上平台结构设计的参考依据。Numerical simulation of typhoon is conducted based on the YanMeng wind field model and the results are compared with the measured data. The feasibility of the wind field model in the southeast coastal engineering sea area of China is verified. Afterward,the CMA’s tropical cyclone best-track dataset is statistically analyzed to fit the typhoon key parameters for probability density distributions. Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the extreme wind speed series of typhoon in the project sea area in 1 000 years,and the extreme wind speed once for 50 years is calculated according to Gumbel distribution. It is found that the YanMeng wind field model simulation effect is good,and the results could be used as a reference basis for the structural design of coastal offshore platforms.

关 键 词：YanMeng风场模型 概率模型 Monte Carlo方法 极值风速 海上平台结构 

分 类 号：P732.2[天文地球—海洋科学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]