基于动态SEIR模型的传染性疾病预测和政策评估  

Prediction and policy assessment of infectious diseases transmission using dynamic SEIR model

作　　者：方匡南[1] 任蕊 朱建平[2,3] 马双鸽[4] 王晓峰 FANG Kuang-nan;REN Rui;ZHU Jian-ping;MA Shuang-ge;WANG Xiao-feng(School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;School of Management,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;School of Public Health,Yale University,New Haven 06501,USA;Department of Quantitative Health Science,Cleveland Clinic,Cleveland 44195,USA)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,厦门361005 [2]厦门大学管理学院,厦门361005 [3]厦门大学健康医疗大数据国家研究院,厦门361005 [4]耶鲁大学公共卫生学院,美国纽黑文06501 [5]美国克利夫兰医院量化健康科学系,美国克利夫兰44195

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2022年第10期114-126,共13页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助重大项目(21&ZD146)。

摘　　要：突发传染病防控问题是近年来引起社会广泛关注的焦点话题,突发传染病不仅会对人们生命健康造成巨大威胁,还会对经济发展、社会稳定造成严重影响,实现突发传染病的及时预警、实时监控和合理预测对传染病防控有着非常重要的现实意义.本文在传播动力学SEIR(Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed)模型的基础上,提出动态SEIR(dynamic SEIR)模型来研究突发传染病的传播趋势.该模型不仅可以考虑人口流动对疾病传播的影响,而且可以根据防控干预措施对模型参数进行动态估计,更符合传染病的病毒传播特点,有更好的预测效果.最后,本文提供相应的R软件包dSEIR供研究者使用.The prevention of sudden infectious diseases is a focus issue that has attracted extensive attention in recent years.The sudden infectious diseases not only pose a huge threat to people’s lives and health,but also bring a serious impact on economic development and social stability.It is of great practical significance to achieve timely early warning,real-time monitoring and reasonable prediction of sudden infectious diseases for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.In this study,a dynamic SEIR model based on the Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed(SEIR)model is proposed to study the spread trend of infectious diseases.The model can not only consider the impact of population movement on diseases transmission,but also dynamically estimate model parameters based on control interventions,which is more consistent with the epidemic characteristics of infectious diseases and has better predictive performance.Finally,the corresponding R software package dSEIR is provided for researchers to use.

关 键 词：突发传染病 动态SEIR 传染病预测 政策评估 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学] R184[医药卫生—流行病学]