基于贝叶斯模型的北京市李斯特菌病发病率估计  

Estimates of incidence rate of listeriosis in Beijing based on Bayesian model

作　　者：姜金茹 牛彦麟 王同瑜 王超[1] 吴阳博[1] 赵一鸣[4] 马晓晨[1] JIANG Jinru;NIU Yanlin;WANG Tongyu;WANG Chao;WU Yangbo;ZHAO Yiming;MA Xiaochen(Beijing Centers for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China;Institute of Reproductive and Child Health,National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China;Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,Peking University School of Public Health,Beijing 100191,China;Research Center of Clinical Epidemiology,Peking University Third Hospital,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京100013 [2]北京大学生育健康研究所,国家卫生健康委员会生育健康重点实验室,北京100191 [3]北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,北京100191 [4]北京大学第三医院临床流病学研究中心,北京100191

出　　处：《中国食品卫生杂志》2022年第5期1054-1058,共5页Chinese Journal of Food Hygiene

基　　金：首都卫生发展科研专项项目(2020-2-40910);国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1601502)。

摘　　要：目的 评估2017—2019年北京市李斯特菌病发病水平,为李斯特菌病的预防控制策略的制定提供科学依据。方法 在北京市李斯特菌病哨点监测的基础上,利用2017—2019年8个区10所二级及以上综合医院及7所妇产专科医院年入院人数和李斯特菌病报告发病数,采用贝叶斯模型估算北京市全人群和妊娠人群李斯特菌病发病率。结果贝叶斯模型估计2017—2019年北京市李斯特菌病全人群发病率为0.25/10万(95%CI:0.17~0.33),年发病人数53人(95%CI:38~71)。妊娠人群发病率为12.89/10万(95%CI:9.03~17.39),约为全人群的52倍;年发病人数31人(95%CI:20~43),约占全人群的58%。结论 2017—2019年北京市李斯特菌病全人群发病水平与其他国家接近,应引起足够重视,而妊娠人群发病率处于国际较高水平,提示应进一步分析成因,在加大全人群宣教监测力度的基础上针对妊娠人群高发特点制定差异化防控策略。Objective To provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of listeriosis,the incidence of listeriosis in Beijing from 2017 to 2019 was estimated.Methods Based on the sentinel listeriosis surveillance in Beijing from 2017 to 2019,the number of hospital admissions and listeriosis cases reported from 10 secondary or above comprehensive hospitals and 7 maternity hospitals in 8 districts were collected in from 2017 to 2019. The incidence rate of listeriosis in Beijing among the whole population and pregnant women were estimated by Bayesian method.Results The incidence rate of listeriosis in Beijing from 2017 to 2019 among the whole population estimated by Bayesian method was0. 25/100 000(95% CI:0. 17-0. 33),with 53(95% CI:38-71)cases annually. The incidence rate among pregnant women was 12. 89/100 000(95% CI:9. 03-17. 39),which was about 52 times of the whole population. The annual number of pregnancy-associated cases was 31(95% CI:20-43),accounting for 58% of the cases among whole population.Conclusion From 2017 to 2019,the incidence rate of listeriosis among the whole population in Beijing was close to other countries,indicating that more attention should be paid to the health education and disease surveillance. Listeriosis among pregnancy in Beijing had a higher incidence than the world average,suggesting that further analysis of the causes should be carried out and comprehensive intervention strategies targeted to pregnant populations are urgently needed.

关 键 词：李斯特菌病 发病率 贝叶斯模型 

分 类 号：R155[医药卫生—营养与食品卫生学]