一种基于CADET的拦截概率快速计算方法  

A Rapid Calculation Method of Interception Probability Based on CADET

作　　者：宋豹 于剑桥[1] 杨迪 郭斐然 SONG Bao;YU Jian-qiao;YANG Di;GUO Fei-ran(School of Aerospace Engineering,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学宇航学院,北京100081

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2022年第12期7-11,115,共6页Computer Simulation

摘　　要：为提高拦截概率的计算速度,保证多弹协同拦截策略的实时制定,结合协方差分析描述函数法(CADET)提出了一种拦截概率快速计算方法。针对传统CADET对于多维函数的统计线性化难度高的问题,基于泰勒级数展开提出一种近似求解方案,另外利用分部积分法降低拦截概率公式的积分维数,实现了拦截概率的快速计算。将其应用于动能拦截器三维制导控制系统,与传统的蒙特卡洛计算拦截概率的方法进行仿真比较,所提出的方法具有快速性好,准确性高的特点,为多弹协同策略的实时制定提供一定的参考。In order to improve the calculation speed of interception probability and ensure the real-time formulation of multi-missile cooperative interception strategy, a rapid calculation method of interception probability was proposed in combination with the covariance analysis describing function technique(CADET). In order to solve the problem that it is hard to handle the statistical linearization of multi-dimensional functions via traditional CADET,an approximate solution based on Taylor series expansion was proposed, and integration by parts is used to reduce the integral dimension of interception probability formula, so as to realize the fast calculation of interception probability. The proposed method was applied to the three-dimensional guidance and control system of kinetic energy interceptor, and compared with the traditional Monte Carlo method to calculate the interception probability. The proposed method has the characteristics of good rapidity and high accuracy, and provides a certain reference for the real-time formulation of multi-missile cooperative strategy.

关 键 词：协方差分析描述函数法 拦截概率 泰勒级数展开 分部积分法 快速计算方法 

分 类 号：TP765.43[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]