西北五省碳排放时空格局及影响因素研究  

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Five Provinces of Northwest China

作　　者：程晓瑜[1] 盖微微[2,3] CHENG Xiaoyu;GAI Weiwei(College of Public Administration,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;School of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar 843300,China;College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150006,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学公共管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [3]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150006

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2022年第11期17-27,共11页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：新疆生产建设兵团社科基金一般项目:“双循环”故居下兵团农业高质量发展研究(21YB32)。

摘　　要：西北五省地理位置和生态环境特殊,经济发展相对落后,要在促进经济社会发展的同时兼顾减碳、控碳的目标,非常具有挑战。文章分析了西北五省碳排放变化情况,采用空间自相关刻画了在县域尺度下研究区域内部碳排放指标的空间关联性,借助趋势面模拟了研究区域内碳排放在空间上的分布规律,运用地理加权回归模型定量描述了各区县碳排放总量影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明:西北地区各县域碳排放量差距逐渐增大,高碳排量县域数量明显增加,空间不均衡程度明显,多极化特征日趋显现;各区县碳排放量空间集聚模式变化程度较小,H-H集聚和L-L集聚是其主要集聚模式;高值县域逐渐向东部和南北方向中部的区域集中,分异情况逐渐显著;由技术引领的产业与生产方式优化在节能减排的道路上发挥的作用越来越大,应因地制宜采取差异化的控碳策略。The five provinces of northwest China have a special geographical location and ecological environment, and their economic development is comparatively backward. It is complicated for them to consider the goals of carbon reduction and carbon control while promoting economic and social development. This paper analyzes the change of the northwest five provinces of carbon emissions, using spatial autocorrelation features within the study area at county scales, describes the space correlation between carbon emissions targets, with the help of trend surface simulation for carbon emissions in the study area in space distribution. Using geographically weighted regression model the influence factor of carbon emissions in each district and county spatial heterogeneity is quantitatively discussed. The results demonstrate that the gap of carbon emission among counties in northwest China is steadily widening, the number of counties with high carbon emission raises markedly, the degree of spatial imbalance is evident, and the characteristics of multi-polarization are increasingly emerging. The spatial agglomeration patterns of carbon emissions in each district and county had little variation, and H-H and L-L agglomeration were the primary agglomeration patterns. The counties with high value progressively concentrated in the east and the middle of the north-south direction, and differentiation was steadily considerable. The optimization of industries and production modes led by technology plays an increasingly important role in energy conservation and emission reduction, and differentiated carbon control strategies should be adopted according to local conditions.

关 键 词：碳排放 时空格局 地理加权回归 影响因素 西北五省 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]