油茶气象灾害普查和风险区划研究——以湖南为例  

Camellia Oleifera Meteorological Disaster Census and Risk Zoning Research:Taking Hunan as an Example

作　　者：郭凌曜 蒋元华[1,2] 廖玉芳 GUO Lingyao;JIANG Yuanhua;LIAO Yufang(Hunan Climate Center,Changsha 410118,China;Key laboratory of Hunan Province forMeteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Changsha 410118,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气候中心,湖南长沙410118 [2]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410118

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第1期125-129,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J055);湖南神农国油油茶产业科技创新创业团队(湘人才发【2022】9号);湖南省重点研发计划农业领域技术创新项目(2016NK2175);湖南省重大科技专项(2018NK1030)。

摘　　要：基于2006—2016年湖南油茶测产数据和同期临近气象站逐日气象观测数据,采用极端天气气候事件影响判识、气象灾害指标独立性检验和相关检验等方法筛选构建湖南油茶主要气象灾害指标;采用气象灾害发生概率与油茶减产率乘积之和构建气象灾害综合指数,基于1961—1990年、1991—2020年湖南500 m×500 m历史气象资料小网格数据和2021—2050年气候变化预估网格数据,分别统计各网格点气象灾害综合指数,绘制不同气候背景下油茶气象灾害综合区划图和油茶气象灾害综合风险区划图。结果表明:影响湖南油茶的主要气象灾害为春梢萌动期低温多雨、盛花期低温阴雨、幼果期低温、果实膨大高峰期干旱、油脂转化和积累高峰期高温、果实成熟期阴雨,综合影响等级除高山区外,大部地区为气象灾害低影响区,对湖南大力发展油茶有利。通过该研究方法得到的结果较现有研究有了新的发现:(1)气象条件对油茶产量的影响需从当年追溯至上年的春梢萌动期;(2)油茶果实膨大高峰期干旱指标有效降水日数较降水总量更重要;(3)油脂转化和积累高峰期的主要气象灾害是高温;(4)在气候变化大背景下,油茶气象灾害高影响等级在减轻,但中、低风险区范围明显增大,需加大气象灾害减灾措施和抗逆品种的研发力度。Based on the production measurement data of Camellia oleifera in Hunan from 2006 to 2016 and the daily meteorological observation data of nearby meteorological stations during the same period,the main meteorological disaster indicators of Camellia oleifera in Hunan are screened and constructed by methods such as the impact identification of extreme weather and climate events,the independence test of meteorological disaster indicators and related tests.The sum of the products of the probability of occurrence of meteorological disasters and the yield reduction rate of Camellia oleifera was used to construct a comprehensive index of meteorological disasters.Based on the small grid data of 500 m historical meteorological data in Hunan from 1961 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2020 and the grid data of climate change prediction in 2021—2050,The comprehensive index of meteorological disasters of each grid point is counted,and the comprehensive zoning map of meteorological disasters of camellia oleifera and the comprehensive risk zoning map of meteorological disasters of camellia oleifera under different climate backgrounds are drawn.The results showed that the main meteorological disasters affecting Camellia oleifera in Hunan are low temperature and rain during the spring shoot germination period,low temperature and rain during the full flowering,low temperature at the young fruit,drought at the peak of fruit expansion,high temperature during the peak period of transformation and accumulation of grease,and cloudy and rainy during the fruit maturity period.In addition to the high mountain areas,most of the areas are low-impact areas of meteorological disasters,which is beneficial to Hunan′s vigorous development of camellia oleifera.The results obtained by this research method have new findings compared with the existing research as:(1)The impact of meteorological conditions on the yield of Camellia oleifera should be traced back to the spring shoot sprouting period of the previous year.(2)It is more important than the tota

关 键 词：油茶 气象灾害 普查 风险 区划 湖南 

分 类 号：S794.4[农业科学—林木遗传育种] P429[农业科学—林学] S42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P49[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X43X915.5