2021年中国气候年景及主要气象灾害概述  

Overview of China Climate Status and Main Meteorological Disaster in 2021

作　　者：刘远 代潭龙 尹宜舟[1] 李莹[1] 蔡雯悦[1] 张颖娴[1] 王国复[1] LIU Yuan;DAI Tanlong;YIN Yizhou;LI Ying;CAI Wenyue;ZHANG Yingxian;WANG Guofu(National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第1期130-135,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“基于暴露度和脆弱性分析的气象灾害风险定量化评估技术体系”(2019YFC1510202);中国气象局灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题“暴雨风险评估及城市灾害防御能力测度研究”(2021LASW-A20);中国气象局创新发展专项“灾害性天气致灾危险性评估和影响预报”(CXFZ2022J068)。

摘　　要：基于长时间序列的气象观测、灾害灾情和社会经济数据,采用气候年景、灾体量、气候风险三类指数以及客观化气象灾害过程识别方法,系统评估了2021年总体年景,以及主要气象灾害的风险和损失年景。结果显示:2021年,我国气候年景总体较差,属于高气候风险,但是气象灾害损失年景偏轻。暴雨洪涝风险等级高,但过程次数低于常年且损失年景总体偏轻;高温过程次数高出常年值1倍多,高温风险等级高;干旱、台风、低温冷冻害和雪灾过程次数均接近或低于常年,灾害损失年景均偏轻,风险等级分别属于略低、一般和一般。Systematically summarizing and evaluating the process of meteorological disasters and their extreme characteristics in China is one of the urgent and key tasks to deal with the increasing climate risks.Based on long-term meteorological observations,disaster statistics,and socioeconomic data,we systematically evaluate the overall climate status in 2021 by using the climate status index,thedisaster volume index,theclimate risk index,and the identification method of the objective meteorological disaster process.The assessment results show that the climate status of China in 2021 is generally poor and belongs to high climate risk,but the disaster loss status is relatively light.The risk level of rainstorm and flood is high,but the number of processes is lower than normal,and the loss status is generally light.The number of high temperature processes is more than double the normal value,and the risk level of high temperature is high.The number of droughts,typhoons,cold freezing and snow disasters is close to or lower than normal,and the disaster loss status is relatively light,and the risk levels are slightly lower,normal and normal.

关 键 词：气象灾害 气候年景指数 气候风险指数 灾体量指数 灾害过程 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P49