基于随机微分方程的易逝性高科技产品更新时机研究  

Research on the Renewal Timing of Perishable High-tech Products Based on Stochastic Differential Equations

作　　者：鲁芳 王芹 张蓓 Lu Fang;Wang Qin;Zhang Bei(Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Logistics,Central South University of Forestry and Technology;College of Logistics and Transportation,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学智慧物流技术湖南省重点实验室 [2]中南林业科技大学物流与交通学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2023年第1期86-91,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

摘　　要：基于易逝性高科技产品的价值易逝性与高新技术特性,构建基于随机微分方程的易逝性高科技产品更新时机模型以解决易逝性高科技产品更新时机不确定性问题。首先,利用威布尔分布和多项式逼近函数构造无技术进步与价值易逝等外部因素干扰的易逝性高科技产品使用寿命模型;其次,采用布朗运动来模拟外部因素对易逝性高科技产品更新时机的影响情况,进而建立技术进步和价值易逝影响下易逝性高科技产品更新时机波动率模型;最后,选取i Pad作为易逝性高科技产品案例验证所构建的易逝性高科技产品更新时机模型,研究结果表明该模型具有较强的稳健性,可为高新技术生产企业在产品更新换代时提供一定的参考。This paper constructs a stochastic differential equation-based renewal timing model to solve the uncertainty of renewal timing of perishable high-tech products based on the value perishability and high-tech characteristics of perishable high-tech products. Firstly, the Weibull distribution and polynomial approximation function are used to construct a model of the service life of perishable high-tech products without the interference of external factors such as technological progress and value fallibility;Secondly, Brownian motion is used to simulate the influence of external factors on the renewal timing of perishable high-tech products, and then a volatility model of the renewal timing of perishable high-tech products under the influence of technological progress and value fallibility is established;Finally,iPad is selected as the case of perishable high-tech products to verify the model of perishable high-tech products’ renewal timing constructed in this paper, and the research results show that the model has strong robustness and can provide some reference for high-tech manufacturers in product renewal.

关 键 词：随机微分方程 布朗运动 易逝性 高科技产品 更新时机 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理] F120.3[经济管理—国民经济]