重大公共卫生灾害主动限流背景下城市轨道交通网络集成韧性  

Integrated resilience of urban rail transit network with active passenger flow restriction under major public health disasters

作　　者：马飞[1] 赵成勇 孙启鹏[1] 崔睿颖 马壮林[2] 朱玉洁 王作航 MA Fei;ZHAO Cheng-yong;SUN Qi-peng;CUI Rui-ying;MA Zhuang-lin;ZHU Yu-jie;WANG Zuo-hang(School of Economics and Management,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China;College of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学运输工程学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2023年第1期208-221,共14页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72104034);国家社会科学基金项目(18BGL258);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2022JM-423);西安市社会科学规划基金项目(22GL89)。

摘　　要：分析了重大公共卫生灾害对城市轨道交通网络集成韧性的影响机理;基于韧性曲线模型对传统韧性测度方法进行了修正,构建了面向重大公共卫生灾害影响的城市轨道交通网络集成韧性测度方法;评估了城市轨道交通网络节点重要度水平,运用复杂网络构建了城市轨道交通网络拓扑模型,对节点客流进行了模拟分配;应用SEZIR传染病传播模型模拟了灾害传播过程,研究了城市轨道交通在重大公共卫生灾害背景下的集成韧性水平演化规律;以西安市疫情发展过程为研究对象,对主动客流限制下城市轨道交通网络的集成韧性水平进行了模拟和数值分析。研究结果表明:主动客流限制措施能够有效提高城市轨道交通网络对重大公共卫生灾害的阻断能力,当客流限制水平达到30%后,重大公共卫生灾害传播过程趋于平缓;主动客流限制措施会直接导致城市轨道交通网络运行效率降低,但能够提升城市轨道交通网络在重大公共卫生灾害影响下的集成韧性水平;当客流限制水平分别为70%、40%和20%时,城市轨道交通网络集成韧性水平的改善提升效果更加明显,累积改善效果分别可达到10.73%、46.87%和226.81%。The influencing mechanism of major public health disasters on the integrated resilience of urban rail transit network was analyzed.The traditional resilience measurement method was modified by the resilience curve model,and an integrated resilience measurement method was constructed for the urban rail transit network affected by major public health disasters.The importance levels of urban rail transit network nodes were evaluated.A topological model of urban rail transit network was constructed by the complex network approach to simulate and assign the nodal passenger flow.The SEZIR infectious disease spread model was applied to simulate the spread process of disaster,and the evolution laws of the integrated resilience level of urban rail transit in the context of a major public health disaster were studied.The process of epidemic development in Xi’an was taken as the research object,the integrated resilience level of the urban rail transit network under active passenger flow constraints was simulated and numerically analyzed.Research results show that the ability of the urban rail transit network to interrupt the spread of major public health disasters can be effectively enhanced by active passenger flow restriction measures.The spread process of major public health disasters becomes gentle after the restriction level of passenger flow reaches 30%.Active passenger flow restriction measures are able to directly reduce the operational efficiency of the urban rail transit network,but the integrated resilience level of the urban rail transit network under the influence of major public health disasters can be improved.The improvement of integrated resilience level of the urban rail transit network is more significant when the passenger flow restriction level is 70%,40%,and 20%,and the cumulative improvement is 10.73%,46.87%,and 226.81%,respectively.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 重大公共卫生灾害 集成韧性 复杂网络 SEZIR传染病传播模型 客流限制水平 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]